There has been much talk about which of the recent pre-election polls is right—the one that says the “red” will win or the one that gives the win to the “blue”—but all the guessing ends in two days, on Thursday, February 7, when Belizeans all across the country will participate in the real poll by dipping their fingers in ink and by stroking their ballots with indelible pencils to mark the names of the men and women whom they trust to govern Belize for the next 5 years.
Since the first national elections in 1954, the ruling People’s United Party has won 10 terms, while the Opposition has won only two – in 1984 and 1993. Coming out of those elections, the country has had three Prime Ministers – George Price (who was first Premier), Manuel Esquivel and then Said Musa. If Musa’s party ends up with a majority in the 2008 election, he gets his third consecutive term; if the UDP wins, however, Opposition Leader Dean Barrow gets his first shot at being Prime Minister.
Before Musa’s back-to-back win in 2003, no administration had stayed two consecutive terms since independence in 1981, and now the Musa administration is seeking its third straight win since its 1998 landslide victory. On the other hand, the Opposition United Democratic Party is hoping that public disgust with the ruling party will be so overwhelming that the PUP will be booted out of office come February 8th.
As the Laws of Belize now stand, there is no recall mechanism to remove a Government that does not meet the expectations of voters. So come Thursday, the people will exercise their greatest power under this democratic system. Those area representatives who failed their constituents will be fired, while those who did their jobs well may be rewarded with another term, and newcomers who have given the people a greater sense of hope and restored their confidence in the electoral process may get a chance to represent them on Independence Hill in Belmopan. That’s really what it will boil down to on Election Day – firing bad stewards of The Jewel’s wealth and hiring better ones. No one knows yet whose number will play, and whether the poll predictions about the third parties being left far behind in the race will even prove correct.
Apart from the ruling People’s United Party and the Opposition United Democratic Party, there are four third parties or alternate parties in the race: Vision Inspired by the People (VIP), People’s National Party (PNP) (which is contesting the elections under the banner of the National Belizean Alliance), National Reform Party and the National Reality Truth and Creation Party. There are three independent candidates: Nazim Juan for Cayo Central, Herman Lewis for Toledo East, and Queen Miller for Belize Rural Central.
However, only the PUP and the UDP have put up full slates of 31 candidates in the elections. A move to establish an alliance among third parties to field a full national slate has failed, reportedly due to ideological differences that were not reconciled. That leaves the 31 third party and independent candidates in the 2008 elections dividedly going up against the Goliaths of Belizean politics.
The 2007/2008 pre-election campaign has been highly spirited and sometimes fierce, with both mass parties totally ignoring the third parties in their ad campaigns, and focusing all their energies on each other. The campaign season winds down with the mass parties holding grand pre-election rallies to rally up their troops for the big day.
Reports to our news desk say that so desperate are some mass party candidates to win, that they are buying votes, but with a stringent requirement – “proof of purchase” – that proof being a camera phone snapshot of the completed ballot paper, showing that the voter places the “X” beside the purchaser’s name. (See story on Camera Phones)
Some voters tell us that vote buying has continued to be a central strategy in the pre-election season, with voters getting anything from crisp cash to luxurious gifts – expensive drinks, clothes, shoes and bags – to sway them to vote for a particular candidate.
One vote-winning strategy the PUP is using is the elected Senate, which has had wide popular support for several years now but which was only recently endorsed by the party leader. On February 7, voters will be asked to cast their votes for or against an elected Senate, right after they complete their general election ballot. The UDP does not support the elected Senate and the PUP is saying to voters, if you want an elected Senate, then the PUP is the party for which to vote.
The ruling party has been far more aggressive than the UDP in its pre-election campaign, having dispatched its well-oiled and highly sophisticated “blue machine” to canvass every corner from Xaibe in Corozal to Jalacte in Toledo, and saturating the media with ads promoting everything from its “one child, one laptop” scheme to its promise to supply 20,000 new jobs. But there have also been those personal anti-UDP ads, most of them targeted at the Leader of the Opposition – claiming him to be some sort of bogeyman that will destroy Belize.
For its part, the Opposition’s anti-PUP propaganda has focused on various scandals under the Musa administration – the Universal Health Services $45 million issue, the privatization of the country’s major utility companies, and allegations of land grabbing by friends and family of the PUP. The UDP promises to make the restoration of confidence in Government its number one priority.
Some political observers say the many material promises of the PUP, plus the fact that the ruling PUP administration began to disburse a $20 million grant from Venezuela in the weeks leading up to the elections, may sway more people to vote in their favor than formerly expected.
The presence of international observers from the Commonwealth Secretariat, who arrived in the country on Friday, February 1, is aimed at removing any shadow of doubt that the upcoming elections will be anything but “free and fair” and to establish that the results are, at the end of the day, the collective will of the people. (See story on international observers)
Coming at the tail end of the most riotous era in post-Independent Belize (2004-2006), the highly anticipated elections are expected to draw one of the highest voter turnouts. A total of 157,393 Belizeans, ages 18 and older, are on the voters’ list for this year’s elections—roughly 31,000 more than were registered for the last elections in March 2003. A recent poll conducted by the Society for the Promotion of Education and Research (SPEAR) anticipates a high voter turnout of 87.3%.
There are a record 93 candidates contesting seats in this year’s elections – with a record 31 divisions being formed after a redistricting exercise just over three years ago which resulted in two new divisions, both in the Cayo District – Cayo North East and Belmopan.
The redistricting exercise shifted the boundaries of certain divisions so that some voters who voted in a particular division in the last election may end up voting in a new division, even though they did not register a change of address.
The stated purpose for the redistricting was to make the voting population of each division more or less the same size, but there is still a 3,890 gap between the largest and the smallest constituencies. Stann Creek West is the largest division with 7,085 voters on the list for that constituency, while the smallest is the Prime Minister’s division of Fort George, with 3,195 voters. In the last election—held prior to the redistricting—Pickstock was the smallest constituency with 1,987 voters, and Cayo South (which included Belmopan) was the largest with 8,344.
Right across the length and breadth of Belize—from the biggest to the smallest constituency—a team of energetic correspondents will be covering the 2008 general elections, from the first ballot to the final count, in the third joint election coverage with KREM and Channel 7, under the theme ’08 Now! (See story on joint election coverage.
Even while the political armies will be engaged in the battle for Belmopan, the religious community will be interceding for a peaceful election day, with mass prayers beginning at 7:00 a.m. on February 7.
The 31 winners will form the House of Representatives. The leader of the winning party will become the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister will pick a team of people from the elected members of the House and the new appointees of the Senate to form his Cabinet – the group of Ministers who will run the public service ministries such as finance, foreign affairs, housing, and natural resources.
Under the Constitution, the Prime Minister is free to shuffle his Cabinet and fire a Minister anytime he chooses, but only the people can fire (or hire) an area rep or House member – Prime Minister included!
Power to the people (In Swahili, Amandla Ngawethu).