-Part 1 of an Amandala exclusive-
The poll exercise announced by businessman and former politico Derek Aikman went off as scheduled on Friday, February 17.
However, it started at 11:00 a.m. rather than 7:00 a.m. as was scheduled, because voters called Aikman asking him to hold off until the main business of nomination day was completed.
Indeed, when Amandala checked with Aikman around eight on Friday night, he told us that he had extended voting to 10:00 p.m., as more voters were available later in the day with “increased contact” after 6:00 p.m., when the poll was originally supposed to close.
But the poll’s main question – “whom do you believe will win the election in your division?” – still seems tough to answer for polled voters two weeks before the actual poll.
The ruling United Democratic Party (UDP), it appears, may have enough seats – sixteen of a possible 31 – to form the next government, but only ten of those seats are clearly in their favour.
The People’s United Party (PUP) appear to have incumbent former leader John Briceno’s Orange Walk Central under their belt, and first-time candidate Arthur Saldivar is ahead of Edmond Castro in Belize Rural North, but the other thirteen divisions are up for grabs, according to Aikman. Indeed, combining those thirteen with ten of the sixteen divisions in which the UDP lead, the election becomes even more tough to call.
Aikman told us he was still putting together the formal data, but he was comfortable enough to declare results for the Belize District, which at 13 seats is one of the keys to victory on March 7.
(The names of candidates appearing here are those declared prior to nomination day on Friday.)
Incumbents Anthony “Boots” Martinez in Port Loyola and Michael Finnegan in Mesopotamia appear set to return, with over 50% of voter support. They were among four constituencies in which the UDP vote outpolled the undecided vote, the others being Lake Independence, where Mark King has a comfortable lead over the PUP candidate (of which there was officially none until 3:30 p.m. on nomination day, when Martin Galvez was nominated,) and Belize Rural South, where even though incumbent Manuel Heredia, Jr., is polling well over PUP rival Patty Arceo and leader of the Belize Unity Alliance Robert “Bobby” Lopez, he is still in a dogfight to keep his seat.
Prime Minister Dean Barrow is ahead of rival Anthony Sylvestre in Queen’s Square, but many of his voters who were polled were not decided on whether to return him for a sixth term. Neither were they sure of the PUP leader, Francis Fonseca, who actually trails his UDP opponent, Lee Mark Chang, slightly in Freetown, though many are undecided. The Albert and Fort George divisions are in a statistical dead heat; the former is a matchup between newcomers Herman Longsworth and David Craig, while in Fort George Said Musa seeks a sixth term against Dr. George Gough.
Caribbean Shores voters are likewise indecisive, but a good number favour Santiago ‘Santino’ Castillo over Dr. David Hoy.
The PUP have a shot in Belize Rural North and Central, where Saldivar is doing well head-to-head with Castro, and Dolores Balderamos-Garcia is in a dead heat with Michael Hutchinson, with no sight of the two third party/independent candidates.
Among the out-district results, Corozal Southwest’s Gabriel Martinez is slightly ahead, but the other three divisions are too close to call.
In Orange Walk, Orlando “Landy” Burns and Gaspar Vega are well ahead in their divisions, but Orange Walk South is too close to call.
Four of six Cayo divisions are indecisive. Only Cayo South and Belmopan were declared for incumbents Salvador Fernandez and John Saldivar respectively.
Dangriga has Arturo Roches narrowly ahead and in Toledo West, Juan Coy appears comfortably ahead, but the other divisions, Stann Creek West and Toledo East, were too close.
Aikman hopes that a second poll on March 2 will help to clarify the picture even further.