We didn’t start the fire – but it is burning hot: Yes, BDF didn’t capture a boatload of 37 Guatemalans and keep them overnight in Belizean territory against their will; nor did they damage Guatemala’s national treasures like how our Belizean reef was damaged; there are no reports of Belizeans crippling what’s left of the Guatemalan rain forest by logging illegally over in Guatemala; Belizeans civilians have not shot after and put the Guatemalan military in a “kill or be killed” situation; no Guatemalan policeman has been slain like Danny Conorquie was, and no Guatemalan soldier was shot and injured by a Belizean.

Despite this comparatively good behaviour, we are faced with a problem – much like the careful person who scrupulously watches diet, exercises, etc., but still ends up getting sick. Oddly though, Guatemala, not Belize, has been the more hysterical one, perhaps adopting the strategy that “the baby that cries the loudest gets the milk.” Not fair, and not a problem of our making, you may rightly say, but we have to confront the rumbling volcano which is the leadership of Guatemala spewing out hot rhetoric and shadow boxing by mobilizing troops along the border.

Have we been consistently shutting ourselves off from our own territory?

Sarstoon incidents have been jarring and dramatic – the Guatemalan military’s presence has been brought into full graphic view and the public is grappling with the vivid reality check that if we are not vigilant and don’t use what is ours consistently, it is in peril of eroding or vanishing overnight.

The motives behind and full ramifications of the Statutory Instrument implemented by Belize’s own government, to keep a segment of its citizens away, are fiercely debated. However, long before the term “Adjacency Zone” entered the Belizean vocabulary, thousands upon thousands of acres have lain dormant and large sections were off limits to Belizeans as conservation parks. Guatemalans shouldn’t be in there either, but the reality is that they are and they are making millions from Belize’s exotic forest, xate, plants , wildlife and some say gold in the river – “wealth untold” is going into Guatemalan pockets.

Is this something Belize can afford? To deprive ourselves of even a fraction of this and allow others to enrich themselves and press for more, and more, and more?

By contrast, it has recently emerged officially that in recent times 35 “villages” have sprung up on the Guatemala side in the western region alone. – (one can only guess how many there are along the entire border). They are mostly small units but the park rangers in the Chiquibul and the BDF have no illusions: they know that these are springboards for the exploitation of the treasures of the Belize forest, and the base for growing communities of land-hungry Guatemalans. They are using the land – Belizean land. We, on the other hand, due to a smaller population (officially they outnumber us overall 43 to 1) and coupled with the fact that we have a smaller economy, we have not been using our land. We loudly maintain our staunch ideal: “not a blade of grass; not a square centimeter of land”, but the fact is that comparatively we have not been utilizing our assets in the border lands. Anyone who owns a wooden house knows that if you don’t take care of the house – woodlice will overrun it in short order. If you neglect your land, over time squatters will plant themselves there and it will be difficult to uproot them.

One is not advocating to throw open the Reserves entirely, but strategically should there not be a greater human presence in a buffer zone for a couple miles along the border rather than leave it seemingly abandoned? Chiquibul alone is around a quarter million acres. Will a 10% to 15% reduction, in the interest of planting humans to demarcate Belize and to be productive, be to the detriment of the nation?

Diplomacy through OAS, etc. hasn’t led to a Treaty – just a change of venue to a legal forum.

We are a 35 year old nation: comparatively, the new kid on the block compared to Guatemala, who, like our 5 other Central American OAS neighbors, will celebrate 195 years as an Independent nation, come this September. It is a daunting challenge and we need imagination to keep pace with a larger country which has a century and a half head start in pushing its agenda diplomatically There is no ready-to hand- military resource available to us which can answer the Guatemalan military advantage now or in the foreseeable future, so that Belize’s only viable recourse is to outmaneuver them diplomatically. In the diplomatic arena Belize has been fighting using Queensbury Boxing rules, but Guatemala appears fighting mixed martial arts – UFC Style.

Of great comfort and encouragement for the future is that Belize had won remarkable diplomatic triumphs in our quest for independence, so it can be done again, but we have to recognize that the stage, the regional stage as well as the global theater, is a bit different – yes, the global audience was grappling with different issues in the 70’s and the dawn of the 80’s. In 2016 priorities have shifted, populations have grown, the players on the stage in Latin America have changed, there is the emergence of different philosophies and the leaders who drive world affairs. Secondly, our cause for independence back then was a fundamental one – give us a chance to chart our destiny. It is not necessarily the case that anyone looks less kindly on Belize, but there are humanitarian crises and large scale natural disasters which consume the world’s attention and we are competing for attention.

We were supported back then, but now we are returning for protection and re-assurance and we may or may not face a more critical audience with changed standards who question whether we are fully living up to the dream of nations which the UN endorsed, in terms of making use of our land which they endorsed as ours. For example, the world community may be focusing on genocide where people are scrambling for their lives and existence. We do have it rough now, but others may look at our situation and say that our problem is that we have unpopulated land which our neighbor is putting to use. It is up to us as a nation to capture their attention and give them some incentive to get embroiled with us diplomatically and logistically to arrest our problem in the most beneficial way possible.

Will the ICJ proposal prove to be an artificial solution?

Belizeans have been like the patient who keeps saying that he is not sick. On paper (UN Resolution, Constitution, 1859 Treaty, etc.) Belize has a clean bill of health as a 8,867 square mile country which to our mind we have always been. We are however told there are underlying problems – and now we can’t turn a blind eye to the problematic situation on the ground.

Belizean and Guatemalan politicians are preaching the same gospel from the same hymn sheet: that referring the case to the International Court of Justice (the “ICJ”) is the only cure left open to us.

Some may fear that the ICJ cure might lead to amputation, territory-wise, which is not a risk Guatemala faces. Whereas others feel that if the ICJ result is in our favour, that it will serve as a kind of immunization against the double symptoms of official Guatemalan territorial claims in the future and of those aggressive Guatemalan citizens on the ground who have the Wild West mentality of “finders, keepers”. They believe that the Guatemalan enthusiasm for ICJ is a huge miscalculation on their part.

Regardless of how it plays out, this ICJ prescription is slow-acting medicine. Eight years have passed since the signing of the Compromis and no firm dates are set for a referendum in either country to decide whether or not the matter is to be referred to the ICJ at all. Like surgery, the patients – Belize and Guatemala, must give their consent up front. Half of Guatemala’s approximately 7.5 million voting population has to participate, and of that number (approx. 3.75 million people) roughly 1.9m have to say “yes.” Belize needs about 118,000 out of 196,000 registered voters to participate and roughly 60,000 to say “yes”. (Guatemala wants us to lower the bar to around 49,000, which means amending the law – more delay!)

Education and mobilization costs for this referendum will be significant. In Belize, it will be a first time experience for a referendum. Guatemala no longer has to hold their referendum the same time we do, so there is additional pressure that if we vote “no,” then the process folds and supposedly it won’t be Guatemala’s fault and they will point the finger at us.

At any rate it will be interesting to see the turnout without the usual election hype or issues like Petrocaribe. In Guatemala, their politics are different but they have to convince 31 times more people. Whether the recent hysteria whipped up by the upper echelons of the Guatemalan government is their campaign strategy remains to be seen, but if it is the case, then we can expect heavier doses of inflammatory rhetoric.

If the body politic of either or both Guatemala and Belize reject, by the vote in their referendums, the ICJ, then what is the contingency plan?

On the flipside of the coin, if both countries vote “yes,” then retaining internationally experienced counsel, preparing legal briefs and going to ICJ to present legal arguments and then awaiting a decision, may involve many more years. It certainly will not be a quick fix. In the meantime what happens at the Belize- Guatemala border? Will the situation on the ground improve, given present trends? Additional initiatives will likely certainly be needed to avoid, many years from now, the scenario that “the operation [ICJ] was a technical success but the patient is worse off.” The ICJ pill is not a “cure-all,” and we must face that reality.

2. Where we need to go – use the land before we lose it

Belizean land in this area needs to be distributed for development purposes for the direct or indirect benefit of the country. Although present Belizeans citizen must always be the priority, logistical challenges in terms of small population and cost of infrastructure means that we cannot possibly do this on our own. Others who are appreciative of opportunity and would be truly grateful to have a new home – Belize, need to be identified and transplanted to these areas in the thousands so that the land can be put to productive use on our terms and in accordance with our national plan.

Below is an outline of a few of the benefits that such an initiative could yield:-

Diplomatic Capital:

Back in the 1970’s the Valley of Peace community was established as a refuge for Central Americans fleeing from civil wars. This no doubt enhanced Belize’s image internationally and may have helped make some nations more receptive to Belize‘s diplomatic push for Independence.

Fast forward some 40 years later and while there are no civil wars flaring in the immediate area, in other parts of the world there are many refugees swarming to other countries. These countries, while sympathetic, have insufficient space. Could an offer be made to some of those countries to sponsor the creation of several satellite towns in unused areas of land along the Belize border? If strategically planned there could be connectivity of infrastructure to some of our remote villages giving them a much needed boost in the process (roads, electricity etc.) Of course, our authorities would have to have an overall plan so that these refugees are integrated in the sense of the injection of local Belizeans to live among them (maybe 25%) and that administrative infrastructure is present. Belize would be contributing to the solution of a current global problem and potentially be accumulating additional diplomatic goodwill and support. Although Belize has received exceptional marks for its tourism offering, it has also been lumped in such unflattering lists as de-risking, high murder rate, etc., so that this initiative could be a golden opportunity to shine more.

Economic factors:

Any deal for satellite towns must involve negotiated increased market access for Belizean exports. As we say, “hand wash hand”. An immediate benefit, if proper planning is done beforehand, is a labour force which could be utilized for new agricultural ventures in the vicinity of the new communities which will boost exports. Again our authorities would have to plan in advance of the refugees’ arrival; the specifics and seed capital would have be provided as part of the aid package in order to launch the projects and to have necessary access. Eventually, after projects are established these new Belizeans will pay taxes and will be consumers themselves, as well as producers, contributing to the overall growth of our economy.
The Mennonites were not refugees by any means, but they have played a role in our economy and their products are on our dinner table. While their exact model can’t be duplicated, the thought of having 40 plus agricultural communities would be beneficial and cut down our import bill and hopefully boost imports.

Possible Manufacturing/Assembly Plants:

The ACP statement of support for Belize is far more inspiring than anything coming from the OAS for quite some time on the Guatemala issue. There is the hope of good things from the wider Commonwealth, huge pluses. We have to encourage and reward our friends when we can.
Throughout North, South, and Central America, Canada is the only other Commonwealth country on the mainland and Belize is more centrally located. Time to give our friends and strong supporters, additional incentives for their support; whether they asked for it or not appreciation is always best. Roll out the red carpet and let them invest on a preferential basis in these undeveloped areas and we will get spinoffs of employment, linkages etc. We are strategically placed for our Commonwealth brothers to set up factories, assembly plants, etc. in a legal system familiar to them – putting them in close proximity to Central America and South American markets.

Security:

No doubt policing miles and miles and miles of dense vegetation is a lonely job for security personnel. While they have their methods which have served us for years, the addition of a couple thousand people strategically along border regions would probably make information gathering and even some deployment a bit easier.

Also in fairness to those few Guatemalan villagers who may genuinely stray innocently into unoccupied sections of Belize, these new villages will be good reference points to know they are not in their republic. Hopefully incidents will be reduced in time with the presence of established communities.

The integration dream

The Corozal Free Zone in its more robust days had neighbouring Mexicans investing in business there and commence thrived at various times with Belizeans being employed. There was never any issue of our laws and sovereignty not being respected, so that the zone enjoyed its success.

Belize has not been selfish. The Maritime Areas Act was meant to foster cooperation, and Guatemalan children for years in the West stream across our border to be educated. The doors aren’t closed and once there is respect for laws and sovereignty there is greater potential. In the meantime though, Belize can’t afford to wait,

3. More ideas needed

The above are really echoes of Belize’s past. They are but one suggestion and it is hoped that Belizean ingenuity will rise to the surface and that a number of better options be presented so that a wider choice emerges. This is a 157-year-old problem and a combination of ideas is what is needed “to tek us out of tigga mouth.”