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Omicron causes surge in Covid cases

GeneralOmicron causes surge in Covid cases

BELIZE CITY, Wed. Jan. 5, 2022– Last week the Minister of Health and Wellness announced that the new COVID-19 variant of concern, Omicron, was likely already in the country of Belize. Dr. Natalia Beer, a technical advisor within the Health Ministry, had told local media last week that the trends in the epidemiological data they were gathering were clearly pointing to a sudden acceleration in the number of cases, with no accompanying spike in hospitalizations — a pattern that strongly suggested that it was the highly transmissible Omicron variant at work. The data on positivity rate in the last epidemiological week shows a sharp upturn in the number of cases, with hikes in cases showing up in all districts — the highest of those increases occurring in Stann Creek.

To date, 57 countries have confirmed the presence of the new variant, which is showing itself to be much more transmissible than the Delta variant. In a presentation to media last week, Beer stated, “With the Omicron, the Omicron can transmit from five to eight persons from each person that is infected with Omicron. That means that in five days we can have five to eight persons infected and each one of these in the next five days can infect five to eight persons, so if we were to use the ‘eight’, then that means five days would have eight persons [infected] and ten days eight times eight, 64. So, 64 plus 8 would give us 72. 72 cases, so in ten days, one infected person can transmit the virus to 72 persons.”

At this time, a lower number of hospitalizations linked to the new Omicron variant are being recorded worldwide. According to the UK Health Security Agency, persons infected with the Omicron variant are between 31 and 45% less likely to need emergency care when compared to the Delta variant. They also know those persons are 50% to 70% less likely to require hospital admission.

“Our numbers are clear, the numbers are increasing by hundreds per day and yet the hospitalizations are similar like one week, two weeks before,” said Dr. Beer.

Data from a recent study still being peer-reviewed suggest that this version of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, with all else being equal, has the capacity to infect 70 times more persons than the Delta variant, but it is less likely to cause infection in the lungs than all its predecessors. This is the primary reason for the lower severity of cases and lower number of hospitalizations, as well as lower need for intensive care, despite the apparent spike in cases.

“In science, they say that they gain an aspect and they lose another aspect, and in the case of Omicron, while it is 70 times faster, infecting and multiplying at the level of the bronchus, in the lung it’s significantly lower, which explains the decrease in the severity of the cases. So, this is important for us to know that we will be seeing and we are already seeing entire families infected with SARS-CoV-2 now,” Dr. Beer said.

Although in general the symptoms caused by this variant are less severe, it is important to note that a person’s level of immune response and whether or not they are vaccinated will determine how they are affected by the virus. Dr. Beer thus emphasized that those persons with co-morbidities remain at a high risk of severe infection.

“Having underlying conditions will determine to increase the number of persons needing to be hospitalized or needing ICU services. In other countries, hospitalizations related to Omicron has been not really because of the COVID-19 disease but because of the complication or the underlying conditions that were not under control,” Beer said.

Currently, the Delta variant remains the dominant strain in Belize. In recent weeks, tests done on samples by the Central Medical Lab still have been pointing to Delta as the main strain, but the lab is actively working, through more recent tests, to detect the presence of the Omicron variant in Belize. Only cases that are reported are marked as positive, so it is still unclear exactly how many people across the country are infected.

More rigorous public measures are on the horizon as the Ministry of Health and Wellness moves to safeguard the population from the threat of yet another wave of infection. For now, the reopening of the land borders has been pushed back, and Dr. Beer said that Cabinet is reviewing various recommendations from the COVID-19 Task Force to curb the spread of the new Omicron variant.

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