Photo: Ronald Gordon, Chief of the National Meteorological Service of Belize
by Kristen Ku
BELIZE CITY, Tues. Aug. 15, 2023
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Weather Service, has recently revised its outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
Current oceanic and atmospheric trends, notably the warmer-than-usual Atlantic waters, have prompted a reevaluation of previous expectations. While the initial forecast hinted at near-average storm activity, new data suggests an uptick.
In contrast to the original May predictions, recent findings show a 60% chance for an active hurricane season, up from an initial 30%. The possibility of a season with average storm activity has dwindled to 25%, a decline from the prior 40%.
There’s a slim 15% chance that there might be below-average activity this season.
Looking at the broader picture for 2023, it is now expected that there will be 14-21 storms with winds of 39 mph or more (tropical storm force), and 6 to 11 are expected to evolve into hurricanes, with winds above 74 mph. Some may even potentially become major hurricanes.
NOAA’s primary forecaster, Matthew Rosencrans, has said that the ongoing El Niño event, coupled with the Atlantic’s warm phase and record-breaking sea temperatures, are key factors which influenced this year’s forecast.
Five storms have already formed in the Atlantic, with one of these developing into a hurricane.
The Chief of the National Meteorological Service of Belize, Ronald Gordon, in an interview, explained, “We usually look at the regional predictions and the different organizations and we sort of base our local expectation on what they are predicting.”
When probed further about the discrepancies between the forecasts of NOAA and Colorado University, Gordon added that both had initially hinted at a nearly normal season. However, the recent trend showcasing warm ocean waters in the Atlantic has prompted these entities to adjust their predictions.
Elaborating on the El Niño phenomenon’s role, Gordon explained that there’s usually a time lag between oceanic occurrences and their atmospheric effects.
The El Niño has a counteractive effect on cyclonic activity, but as Gordon noted, “So far for this season the warm waters in the Atlantic has been more dominant.”
He concluded with a plea to the public, urging preparedness in light of the heightened predictions. “And like we always say, it only takes one storm to make landfall on the country for it to be an active season,” he cautioned.