by Kristen Ku
BELIZE CITY, Thurs. Nov. 2, 2023
Residents of Belize are gearing up for a wet start to November, as the National Meteorological Service of Belize monitors an evolving weather situation in the Western Caribbean. With the Atlantic hurricane season nearing its end, a potential tropical disturbance loomed over the region earlier this week, threatening to develop into a tropical depression.
Initially, meteorologists reported a 70% probability of the disturbance escalating into a tropical depression within a week, and a 30% chance within three days. However, recent shifts in weather patterns have cast a different forecast for Belize.
As November 1st brought continuous night showers and gusty winds, questions arose whether this was the disturbance making its appearance.
To get some answers, on November 2, Chief Meteorologist, Ronald Gordon from the National Meteorological Service of Belize, clarified the situation with an update. “The weather conditions we’re experiencing right now are not related to the tropical disturbance, but as we had expected, a cold front initially, but now it’s just a frontal boundary, that has stalled over the area and is producing showers, thunderstorms, and periods of rains across the country,” he explained.
The Stann Creek District bore the brunt of the weather event, recording a significant 2 to 4 inches of rainfall just in the last day. Although the current system is expected to move mostly offshore, providing a brief reduction in rainfall, Gordon cautioned that the tropical disturbance, currently lingering south of Jamaica, is anticipated to send a fresh wave of moisture over Belize by Friday night.
In a reassuring note, the meteorologist revealed that the likelihood of the disturbance escalating into a tropical depression or storm has significantly decreased, with current odds at a low 20%, a clear contrast to the 70% chance noted earlier in the week. However, the system will still bring in heightened showers and thunderstorms persisting through the weekend.
Forecasts project an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain today, November 2, escalating to up to 4 inches on Friday, November 3, particularly in the south and offshore areas. The entire country should anticipate a surge in rainfall by Friday night as the disturbance advances. “By Saturday we are expecting about 1 to 4 inches over most parts of the country, as the tropical disturbance moves into our area. Then on Sunday, we’ll see a slight decrease of rainfall, decreasing to about 1 to 2 inches,” Gordon detailed.
It is crucial to note that these projections are estimates and subject to change as the system moves slowly westward, with an expected approach toward the Nicaraguan coast by Friday.
Flood alerts have already been launched by the Ministry of Natural Resources, Petroleum, and Mining on Thursday, advising residents of a medium-high possibility of flash floods on rivers in the eastern slopes of the Mayan Mountains, areas near the Coastal Highway, and the Moho and Temash River watersheds, specifically.
The Meteorological Service emphasizes that citizens stay alert to weather updates and advisories as these showers approach Belize.