The April 2012 hurricane forecast released by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray of the Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project said that the probability of at least one major hurricane (categories 3 to 5) tracking through the Caribbean is 34%, lower than the 42% average probability for the last century.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season spans June 1 to November 30 each year, and forecasts cover the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.
The April report from CSU forecasts 4 hurricanes and a total of 10 named storms, lower than the usual average of 6.5 hurricanes and 12 named storms. The number of major hurricanes is forecast at 2 this season, in line with the usual average.
The National Hurricane Center has announced minor changes in wind speeds on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which will become effective May 15, in time for the 2012 hurricane season. The change, the center said, “will be made to resolve rounding issues associated with the conversion of units from knots to mph which are used for wind speed.”
Category 3: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt, 178-209 km/h) will become Category 3: 111-129 mph (96-112 kt, 178-208 km/h); Category 4: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt, 210-249 km/h) will become Category 4: 130-156 mph (113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h); and Category 5: 156 mph or higher (136 kt or higher, 250 km/h or higher) will become Category 5: 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher, 252 km/h or higher).
The National Hurricane Center says, “There will be no change to the wind speeds currently assigned to Categories 1 and 2.”
The storm names for 2012 are Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William.
Irene has been retired from the list of names.