BELIZE CITY, Wed. Sept. 25, 2019– On Saturday, Belize celebrated 38 years of being an independent country and Prime Minister Dean Barrow, in his State of the Nation speech from Independence Plaza in Belmopan, trumpeted that the economy is on strong footing with a 5 percent growth rate and unemployment at an all-time low of 7 percent.

While the Prime Minister’s speech might be good political optics for domestic consumption, that is not what the experts are saying about Belize’s economic outlook when it comes to attracting investments.

In an article published by Reuters Business News on Friday, September 20, 2019, captioned: “Factbox: Who’s next? After Argentina, investors scan emerging market risks,” Belize was listed among a group of countries as a “sudden stop” investment country.

“But a number of developing countries are struggling with big current account deficits and short-term financing needs, making them vulnerable to the kind of  ‘sudden stop’ in investment flows which has dogged emerging markets throughout the 20th century,” Reuters said.

The Reuters article, quoting an International Monetary Fund working paper, pointed out that Belize is among a handful of countries “that have seen spreads widening on its debt since the start of the year” and that “Belize has struggled with a vicious circle of low growth and increasing public debt.”

Reuters pointed out that Belize’s economy is dominated by tourism and agriculture and agriculture has been hit by a severe drought.

“Belize’s debt is rated B-/B3 by ratings agencies, but analysts calculate that with bonds trading little above 60 cents in the dollar, the market implied rating should be some three notches lower,” said the Reuters story.

 “With debt above 90 percent of GDP, Belize’s position is weaker than in a number of other emerging market economies,” the IMF said.

The other countries listed in the Reuters story are Lebanon, Turkey, and Zambia.