Belizeans are still reeling from the devastating effects of Tropical Storm Arthur, but it is only the first named storm in the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and meteorological authorities warn that we should not let our guard down, as this will be another above average season, with plenty of storm activity to keep us on our toes.
In a normal season, the Atlantic Basin experiences 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 of them intense – being Category Three strength or more.
This year, however, the prediction coming out of the Colorado State University is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 of them being intense.
Even though the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season has already hit us with major storm activity, unleashing massive flood waters on most of Belize, the most storm activity in our part of the Caribbean is really forecast for August to October. Recall that last year, Belize was under attack from Hurricanes Dean and Felix during this period – both threatening us only two weeks apart.
Belize Chief Met Officer, Ramon Frutos, told Amandala in an interview Friday, May 30, that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Prediction Center in Washington, USA, has indicated that there is a 65% chance of above normal activity for the Atlantic Basin this year, a 25% chance of near normal season, and only a 10% chance of below normal season.
“After allowing for uncertainties, the NOAA scientists estimate a 60%-70% chance of occurrence of 12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes of CAT III intensity or greater,” says a May 30 release from the Met Office.
Frutos explained that the projections are based on the premise of ongoing atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have favored above normal conditions since 1995, called the multi-decadal signal, which includes above normal sea temp, and the lingering effects of a La Niña or cold ocean temperature phase, and an ENSO-neutral cycle, the period between the La Niña and the El Niño phases.
(ENSO means El Niño/ Southern Oscillation, and El Niño refers to the warming of sea surface temperatures.)
It is expected that this year, between 4 and 6 hurricanes will move across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico region, two to three being major hurricanes.
When meteorologists of the region, belonging to Zone 4 under the World Meteorological Organization, met this year in Orlando, Florida, to review and update their plans for the season, they decided to retire the names Dean, Felix and Noel off the list, because of their notoriety.
Frutos notes that this hurricane season will be a challenging one, with the prices of basic food items going up and the cost of fuel continuing to rise. He advises families to keep hope alive and buy supplies a little at a time to get prepared in the event of another major hit.
For now, he underscores the need for Belizeans to pay keen attention to weather reports, to take necessary precautions and especially to remain vigilant and be ready to act.
“This year’s Hurricane season will be challenging when we consider the many other factors that the Belizean population has to contend with, including the increased cost of basic food stuff and fuel. However, let’s keep hope alive, buy your emergency supplies a little at-a-time and always remain vigilant and prepared to act!,” said a press release issued by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Belize on Friday.
The Met Office says it will continue to monitor the Atlantic Basin closely for early signs of an evolving tropical cyclone, and will quickly activate its hurricane emergency plan in the event of an impending threat to the country.
Notes on the Saffir Simpson Scale
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane’s present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline, in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.
Category One: Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.
Category Two: Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.
Category Three: Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences within several blocks of the shoreline may be required.
Category Four: Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).
Category Five: Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.