Photo: Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President
The COP28 closed with a milestone agreement marking the “Beginning of the End” of the fossil fuel era, says UNFCCC Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), however, in a statement delivered by their lead negotiator, Anne Rasmussen of Samoa, said the agreement contains a “litany of loopholes.”
by Marco Lopez
BELIZE CITY, Wed. Dec. 13, 2023
A historic deal committing the world to a transition from fossil fuels for the first time, was reached at the end of this year’s climate change talks. Held in Dubai, UAE from November 30 – December 12, this year’s Conference of Parties (COP) of the UNFCCC saw several “firsts” – the operationalization and initial capitalization of the Loss and Damage Fund; the launch of a groundbreaking US$30 billion fund for climate change partnership called Alterra; declarations on agriculture, food, health, and others; and new global goals to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency.
A lot was done within the very short time span. The global south, however, is still wary that this COP has failed to match action with what the science recommends.
According to a statement from the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), of which Belize is a member, the agreement was adopted without those small island member states present in the room.
Anne Rasmussen, lead negotiator for AOSIS and a Samoan national, said, “We didn’t want to interrupt the standing ovation when we came into the room, but we are a little confused about what happened. It seems that you just gaveled the decision and the small island developing states were not in the room….so allow me, Mr. President, to deliver the statement that we were going to deliver before this text was adopted.”
The UAE Consensus, the AOSIS representative noted in her presentation, contains many good elements, including strong references to climate science and clear milestones for parties to prepare and submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions in line with the 2025 deadline.
While these and other advancements were viewed as important to AOSIS, Rasmussen said, “The question we have considered as the Alliance of Small Island States is whether they are enough. Zoning in on paragraphs 26 and 29 of this decision, we have come to the conclusion that the course correction that is needed has not been secured. We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual, when what we really needed is an exponential change in our actions and support. Mr. President, in paragraph 26 we do not see any commitment or even an invitation from parties to peak emissions by 2025.”
About 200 countries came together with a decision on the first global stocktake to ramp up climate action before the end of the decade. The overarching goal is to keep the global temperature increase limit of 1.5°C within reach. AOSIS’s statement outlined, “We reference the science throughout the text and even in this paragraph (p26 – UAE Consensus), but then we refrain from an agreement to take the relevant action in order to act in line with what the science says we have to do.”
The agreement falls short of the specific fossil fuel “phase out” language most countries wanted in the text, but broke new ground in that no previous COP text has any mention of moving away from oil and gas – the fossil fuels that have underpinned the global economy for decades.
The pact, however, leaves room for the burning of natural gas as a part of the transition to clean energy.
A pact between more than 50 companies to reduce emissions from their operations made no mention of the levels of oil and gas production, but pledged to reduce pollution from methane to near zero by the end of the decade.
Al Jaber’s presidency didn’t prevent Saudi Arabia’s lobbying to oppose any attempts to include fossil fuel phase-out in the text. When Bloomberg News asked the Energy Minister of the second largest OPEC member country if he would be happy to see a phase-down in the text, his response was “absolutely not.”
OPEC sent a letter to its members during the process, asking them to lobby against any text that targets fossil fuels rather than emissions.
The agreements and pledges coming out of COP28 will become a reality only if actions are taken by national governments, investors, and consumers to materialize the rhetoric found in the consensus.
The decision coming out of Dubai marks an important global direction towards a low-carbon energy system, but as COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber said in his remarks at the closing ceremony, “An agreement is only as good as its implementation. We are what we do, not what we say.”
President Al Jaber’s role at the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), and his perceived use of the presidency to bring more oil and gas industry voices firmly into the COP process than ever before, has drawn criticism from climate activists the world around.
He maintains that his presidency has “given the world a robust plan to keep 1.5°C within reach.”
The parties agreed to have Azerbaijan host COP29 from 11 – 22 November 2024, and for Brazil to serve as the COP30 host from 10-21 November 2025.
These next two years will be important for climate action. At COP 29 governments must establish new climate finance goals reflective of the urgency of the climate challenge.
And at COP30, preparing and submitting new Nationally Determined Contributions aligned with the 1.5°C temperature limit.
UNFCCC Executive Secretary Stiell said in his closing remarks, “My final message is to ordinary people everywhere raising their voices for change; every one of you is making a real difference. In the crucial coming years, your voices and determination will be more important than ever. I urge you never to relent. We are still in this race. We will be with you every single step of the way.”