by Charles Gladden
BELIZE CITY, Thurs. Nov. 14, 2024
In a 12-month notice letter, dated November 8, that was sent to the Public Utilities Commission (PUC), the Belize Electricity Limited (BEL) projected a considerable decline in power generation in 2025.
The letter stressed that the expected peak electricity demand within the next twelve months will exceed available generation capacity, which will make it necessary to procure additional generation services beyond what will be available within the next year.
BEL thus requested that the PUC secure the approval of the Government of Belize as soon as possible, but otherwise no later than 15 November 2024, which is tomorrow, to declare an emergency concerning generation services in Belize, and thus authorize BEL to initiate the process for emergency generation procurement.
Amandala attempted to seek comment from the PUC but our requests were declined. However, the Prime Minister of Belize, Hon. John Briceño, has said that there have been discussions about securing additional energy when it is needed.
“On declaring the energy [emergency], I have not spoken to the CEO, but we have had many discussions on this, and he has pointed out under the Act that we can declare an emergency to quickly get investors to sign up for energy [procurement]. He believes that if he does that, by the end of next year he could have 60 or 80 megawatts,” he said.
“We have discussed access to a ship that could bring 80 megawatts. So, for that eighty megawatts to come into Belize and provide energy when we need it in April, we need to be able to sign a contract with them. To do it you need to sign an emergency. All things equal, there may be or may not be a shortage in April, or May. We are doing everything in place possible to avoid that,” he said.
In previous years, 2019, 2023, and early 2024, the country experienced significant load shedding due to the failure to install new generation capacity on the grid, which was amplified by the impacts of extended droughts and heatwaves in Belize and southern Mexico (which drove up demand for electricity, while simultaneously curtailing supply from both local hydroelectric power plants and CFE, Mexico).
The load shedding was more prevalent from April to June when various parts of the country experienced daily outages of 5 hours on average. BEL additionally noted that around 28 MW of new generation capacity will be added to the grid in 2024. However, it will run on diesel, with fuel costs between $0.50 and $0.60 per kWh. Moreover, the generation services available to meet demand may be further constrained if energy imports from Mexico become more limited or more expensive with the introduction of Tren Maya in the Yucatan Peninsula and the delays with Mexican generation projects.
At the moment, BEL’s supplier of energy is Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), and it is predicted that challenges will continue throughout the warmer months of 2025 as CFE supply to Belize will decline from the 55MW contracted amount, instead averaging 22MW, 7MW, 8MW, and 34MW during May through August 2025, respectively.