The National Hurricane Center reported a 90% chance of development of this system over the next 5 days.
BELIZE CITY, Thurs. Sept. 22, 2022
As the fourth month of the Atlantic Hurricane Season nears a close, storm-formation activity is intensifying within the region—with a total of 5 current weather systems having been identified by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of this morning. One system currently barreling on a projected path toward Belize from the southeastern Caribbean Sea is said to have a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days and is expected to dump heavy rains, accompanied by strong winds, over Venezuela and the ABC Islands beginning today.
According to the NHS, at this time upper-level winds are inhibiting the development of the system, but these conditions are expected to be replaced by conditions more favorable to storm development as the storm continues further along the Caribbean Sea. It is forecasted to move west-northwest across the Central Caribbean this weekend, with a 70% chance of development over the next 48 hours.
Advisories are also issued for Category 4 Hurricane Fiona, which was located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda this morning and is heading towards Canada. This system is expected to once more dump heavy rains on Puerto Rico, resulting in more than 15 inches of rain, with a possible peak of 30 inches in some places. Widespread flash floods were triggered by the rains, causing damages that are likely to cost the country, which is still recovering from Hurricane Maria in 2017, billions of dollars.
Tropical Storm Gaston is currently approaching an archipelago west of the Portugal mainland known as the Azores. Most recent reports said that it is currently located about 375 miles west-northwest of the Faial Island in the Central Azores, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.
Besides these three systems, two others are currently in the Atlantic—one of which recently left the coast of Africa, and the other being a tropical wave that emerged over the warm waters of the Caribbean. The system is currently moving slowly, the NHS reports, between West Africa and the Cabo Islands.
Projections from Accuweather have one of these storms passing Belize and entering the Gulf of Mexico.
According to a Fox Weather report, the Atlantic Hurricane Season reached its “climatological peak” on September 10. The report identified this as the date when “the most tropical storms and hurricanes have roamed the Atlantic Basin in the historical records.” It further explained that “Early to mid-September is the time of year with the most optimal conditions for the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. This is when sea-surface temperatures reach their warmest levels of the season, upper-level winds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean tend to relax, Saharan dust is less widespread than earlier in the summer, and tropical disturbances frequently roll off the western coast of Africa.”