It’s not our call to influence who fills the leadership positions in other countries, but it is incumbent on our leaders to consider the implications of foreign elections, particularly those in countries that directly impact us. Especially because we are small, our leaders are usually silent about whom they support, though very often it’s clear at home whom they prefer. In a tack away from our usual posture, Belize’s present leaders were overtly supportive of President AMLO’s successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, maybe because AMLO, a left-leaning leader, has been more supportive of Belize’s economic well-being than any leader who has been president in Mexico.
Leaders in big countries aren’t coy about where they stand regarding the leadership in other nations. New UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, of the left-wing Labour Party, has a cordial relationship with former US president, Barack Obama. In March this year, when Obama visited the previous UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, of the Conservative Party, for informal talks, Nile Gardiner, in the right wing newspaper, The Telegraph, said in a story titled “Obama is no friend of Britain – Sunak should invite Trump,” that it was “a reckless move by Downing Street ahead of an impending US presidential election this November, as well as a bad strategic decision to host a left-wing anti-British former president.”
It is a worrying promise made to the American people, by Donald Trump of the Republican Party, that if he wins the presidency in November his administration will embark on deporting 15 to 20 million people living in the US illegally. There is no guarantee that Mr. Trump will become the next president, because there is a formidable rival competing for the crown, the present president, Joe Biden, of the Democratic Party. There is also no guarantee that a Trump administration would follow through with the largest mass deportation of people in history. Some experts say it would be impossible to execute such a program.
There are no guarantees in politics. For decades, the Democratic Party has been seen as less hostile to undocumented immigrants, all non-white, and when the US got its first non-white president, Barack Obama, it was anticipated that the pressure on undocumented persons would ease. There are various aspects of the immigration story, but it is not an empty charge by some that Obama turned out to be “deporter-in-chief.” It is claimed that his administration sent home more immigrants than any other in US history.
Our system, a capitalist one, has never been able to provide opportunities, or incentivize Belizeans to create opportunities sufficiently, so that our people are content to remain at home. Our economy is fragile, and struggling, and that’s why Belizeans have left our shores, sometimes in droves, to seek a better economic life in the US.
Recent data from the Statistical Institute of Belize (SIB) is that our unemployment situation has never been as good as it is now. But the statistics don’t tell the full story of what’s on the ground. Many consider the SIB’s definition of “employed person” to be overly broad and generalized. Also, there has always been considerable underemployment in Belize, and a massive hike in the price of imported goods has caused more Belizeans to slip into this category. Belizeans are overly dependent on foreign products, especially since our post-independence governments abandoned the “mixed economy” system, and access to foreign television increased our appetite for luxury goods. The majority of our people have fallen into the ranks of the underemployed – with insufficient or barely enough money from our paychecks to buy what we need or perceive as needs.
The present government could point to the fact that our country was in recession for more than 4 consecutive quarters when they took office, that they took office during the Covid-19 pandemic, that a war in Europe and a genocide in Palestine have further disrupted the world economy, that they took over a country in massive debt, and that a couple of our backbone agro-industries aren’t doing well. What caused our present economic state and what the present government has done to make things better are important, but only to help us chart a way forward. As it stands at this moment, our economy is unable to withstand any shocks of some severity, such as what mass deportation from the US would cause.
People are a country’s greatest resource, if they have a place in the economy. When people can’t find a place in the economy, they become a burden. Neither a Trump nor Biden government would send home doctors, engineers, computer technicians/programmers, or other highly skilled Belizeans. They walk on the proverbial red carpet, and many, if not all, have gained citizenship status in the US. The Americans are about increasing the fruits of their economy, so they will hold on to those who help make their economy grow. They won’t send back Belizeans who do the jobs that Americans don’t want either. Though their work is not nearly as prized, their services are essential.
Primarily, they would be sending back our people whose services are expendable, and those who are involved in illegal activities. Our biggest concern is the return of Belizeans who have been sucked into the world of violent crime. Deportees who had turned criminal so overwhelmed El Salvador that the people there embraced the suspension of basic rights and the incarceration of thousands, under their president, Nayib Bukele. Next door, in Honduras, President Xiomara Castro’s government, faced with a similar problem, recently announced plans to construct a large prison with a capacity for 20,000 inmates.
Even if absorbing hundreds of deportees wasn’t looming, we should be moving with urgency toward boosting our economy. We have to become more productive. Raising more cattle and selling them on the hoof, and more primary agricultural production, are positive, but the increased stress on our environment has to be considered. More than two decades after cruise tourism became “a thing,” we have yet to produce a plan to guide its future.
Paramount for the growth of our economy is that we produce more of the goods that are sold in the grocery stores, and that we make a conscious effort to spend a greater portion of our dollar on products that are made in Belize. For the good of the nation, we must reduce our dependency on foreign luxuries. Our dollars must be spent on tacos and meat pies, products from our cottage industries, local art, locally processed foods and beverages, and the fresh fruit/vegetables/meat/fish produced by our farmers and fisher folk. We must return to planting 10,000 trees each year, to increase our forest cover and so we don’t have to import lumber. We must revisit the cooperative system, combining our capital, talent, and labor so we become more competitive. Our government must continue promoting MSMEs, and it must redeploy the technical talents in its employ in the service of small entrepreneurs.
Our economy would be shocked by any sizable deportation. Deportees with no criminal inclinations would be tempted to turn to crime when they can’t find economic opportunities in the land of their birth. Already we have to rely on SOEs from time to time to restore order when there is an escalation of violent crimes. If we were “hit” with some plane loads of deportees, it’s likely only a Bukele-like response would keep our country from being paralyzed. We can prevent that happening by producing more, spending more of our money on Belizean products, and foregoing foreign luxury goods.