On March 11, 2020, the Director-General of the World Health Organization, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, solemnly declared a pandemic, because of Covid-19, the novel coronavirus. The world has not been the same since. The pandemic, which was declared to be over in May 2023, more than 3 years later, left death in its wake, close to 7 million, debilitating permanent health conditions for some of the more than 750 million who were infected and re-infected, and severely weakened economies everywhere.
When the pandemic was declared, Belize was in full election mode, with the mandate of the government at the time (UDP) set to expire in November 2020. The UDP had held the reins of government for three consecutive terms; too long. The party was uninspiring, and with the pandemic piling on top of an already slumping economy, the PUP, with its promises of reform and “everybody fi win”, won 58.3% of the popular vote and cruised to a landslide victory, 26 seats to 5, at the polls on November 11, 2020.
At least since Independence (1981), every party that moved from opposition to government in a landslide victory, lost substantial ground in the following election. Prior to 2020, there were three change-of-government blowout victories: in 1984, 1998, and 2008. In 1984 the UDP won 21 of 28 seats, and 54% of the popular vote; and in the election that followed, 1989, they lost 8 seats and dropped 5 percentage points in the popular vote, ending up with 49%. Actually, the UDP lost the 1989 election, in a giant upset. In 1998 the PUP won 26 of 29 seats and got 59.7% of the popular vote; and in the election that followed, 2003, they lost 4 seats and dropped 6 percentage points, ending up with 53.5%. In 2008 the UDP won 25 of 31 seats and got 56.6% of the popular vote; and in the election that followed, the party dropped 8 seats and 6 percentage points, ending up with 50.4% of the vote.
In the 2025 general election, however, the PUP maintained their 26-to-5 advantage in seats, and upped their share of the popular vote by a whopping 10 percentage points, to 67.9%. Inarguably, the PUP’s percentage of the vote would have been greater if two seats that had been predicted to be won in landslides for the party, hadn’t been declared prior to the election because the opposition candidates decided not to sign up.
By most accounts, the PUP did a good job with some very difficult cards they were handed in 2020. On top of the pandemic, the PUP also had to deal with the fallout from two new wars directly involving the major military powers in the world, one in Europe and one in the Middle East.
The economy that the PUP won the right to rescue was notn nice, and in office they didn’t shirk on the task. They worked hard at delivering land to Belizeans who didn’t own any; introduced a pragmatic starter home program, which, though insufficient because these are tough economic times, is absolutely on the right track; they expanded the BPO and tourism industries, and grew the livestock industry; they expanded NHI and introduced free education in a number of schools; and they took back the Boledo. The PUP delivered on a promised 50% raise of the minimum pay, and produced great macro numbers—our debt-to-GDP ratio looks like that of a country living in economic nirvana, and we have an incredibly low unemployment rate, by the accepted measure.
But there were a number of reasons for the PUP to lose ground. The party did not deliver on a few important reforms they promised in 2020. They might have received a pass on that failure because of the monumental Senate-supported decision made midstream of their 2020-2025 term, to embark on a full review of our Constitution.
Most notably, governments get blamed for everything, and on the economic front, Belizeans have been feeling the pinch. The pandemic and the fallout from the Europeans’ wars caused a massive rise in the price of goods across the globe, with inflation increasing upwards of 30% on many essential products. The pressure from outside is excessive. We are a little country, and just prior to the election it became a lot rougher in the world when a new US government decided to drop the big stick on friends who they said were taking advantage of them, abusing their largesse, and enemies who they felt needed to be brought into line.
The weeks leading up to the election should have caused the knees of the government to wobble. Since the turn of the century, Belize, which is at the midpoint on the route of cocaine flowing from the south to the north, has been plagued by violence. Our security ministry, with some new and revamped programs and the strategic use of the State of Emergency tool, has had our murder rate trending downward, though far from fast enough. Coming on to the election, it seemed all hell broke loose. There was a series of tragedies at home – the local gang wars boiled over, particularly in Belize City; there were murders in the north which suggested that a number of Belizeans, including security personnel, had become too close to the drug cartels in southern Mexico; a high-profile expatriate real estate mogul was murdered; and three young female tourists from the US were found dead in their hotel room, from yet to be determined causes. Those weren’t the extent of the tragedies. Two promising UB students drowned; people went missing and were found dead; and there were police shootings, and more accidents and casualties on our highways.
Not the least of the challenges that the incumbents faced is a sometimes unrealistic electorate which aspires for a standard of living equal to that of the financially wealthy countries in the world, and prioritizes goods our country doesn’t produce. Our governments have to live with our “tastes,” because people follow the lead of their leaders, and the leaders of our modern generation aren’t cut from the cloth George Price and Philip Goldson were cut from.
The PUP should have lost ground, and it would have, if this election wasn’t like any other. There was no real test for the PUP, because the main opposition, the UDP, imploded, split into two factions. For the first time in our electoral history, there were TWO candidates from the UDP on a number of ballots. On Wednesday the voter turnout was the lowest in decades. That’s because many UDP supporters and independents stayed home.
It is important that the PUP won on Wednesday night. The PUP wasn’t perfect, far from, but the party had worked hard in government, and hard work should be rewarded. The dust is settling now on March 12. The PUP has been bestowed the right to lead us through the next five years. It’s a task for giants to manage little countries, especially in the present world climate.
Congratulations to the PUP! They got the job, and we are still waiting to win. There will be no grace period.