BELMOPAN, Wed. May 26, 2021– The 2021 hurricane season is only days away, and the experts are predicting yet another above-average hurricane season for 2021. Belize is still currently recovering from the extensive rains brought on by last year’s hurricanes Eta and Iota, and the first storm (Ana) for the 2021 season has already been named. Weather analysts are forecasting an additional seventeen named storms, which could entail another period of excessive rainfall for Belize.
The Ministry of Disaster Risk Management, along with the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO), held a sensitization session in Belmopan on Wednesday to discuss their safety and preparedness plans with the public. Following the presentations, the Minister of Disaster Risk Management, Hon. Orlando Habet, spoke on the preparedness of our response agencies. He reassured the public that, in terms of preparedness, “we are there,” and stated that NEMO and the Ministry have been working all year long to ensure that they were ready for the season.
Hon. Habet also mentioned that the Cabinet held a meeting this week to prepare all CEO’s who will be leading various response committees, should a storm strike the country. He noted as well that all committees are activated simultaneously throughout urban and rural communities on a national level so that “everybody gets prepared at the same time.”
Chief Meteorologist, Ronald Gordon also delivered a presentation at the meeting and was able to outline the weather patterns that are expected in the Atlantic during the upcoming months.
“All the indications are, the factors are there, for it to be an above-normal season, and when I refer to those factors, I refer to the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin, especially the sub-tropical Atlantic, and the other factor which is very important is whether you have an El Nino or La Nina situation. Without going into details, El Nino situation typically suppresses tropical storm activity or tropical cyclone activity in our region, whereas La Nina does the reverse; it enhances it. The indications are, we are either going to be in a weak La Nina or neutral conditions, so that will not be a suppressing factor, and coupled with the fact that we have warmer than normal Atlantic Sea surface temperatures, we expect this season to be above normal,” Gordon stated.
Gordon further explained, “Normal now is fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes, I believe, and three major hurricanes.That would be a normal hurricane season, using the 1991-2020 climatology as the baseline. This year, most centers are forecasting about eighteen named storms and about eight hurricanes and in terms of major hurricanes, the forecast is for there to be about [five] major hurricanes this season.”
Despite these predictions, the Chief Meteorologist wants the Belizean public to rest assured that “NEMO has been going twenty-two years. So, we have been here, many years and we know what to do. We are in good hands with the Chief Meteorological Officer in terms of the systems that would approach Belize and what is the prognosis, or analysis, or the possibility of that system being a minor or major threat and what actions the general public should take where NEMO will be providing those advisories. We do not need to panic.”
Gordon then stressed the need for all families to have an emergency plan which outlines where they will go if a hurricane is approaching, and what they need to do for themselves and for their loved ones in such a scenario. Apart from this, residents are advised to remain abreast of the updates being relayed by NEMO and the National Meteorological Service of Belize.