“The P.U.P. won the general elections of 1989 only to lose again after it called early elections in June 1993, a year and a half before it was constitutionally due.” – from www.pup.bz

Since ministerial self-government was introduced in 1964, the People’s United Party (PUP) had won all elections until its first defeat in 1984, just three years after fulfilling its stated goal of achieving independence for Belize in 1981; and its second defeat came quickly after in 1993, after it took back the government in 1989 and then called general elections almost a full year and a quarter earlier than constitutionally required. This relatively early calling of elections by the PUP on March 12 of 2025, eight months before it is actually due, is interesting, and sparks speculation as to the possible reasons for such by a government that is riding high in professed accomplishments so far in its 2020-2025 Plan/Belize manifesto; while the opposition UDP is practically still in shambles, reeling from an unresolved leadership crisis, and with no manifesto plan yet offered to the Belizean electorate. With a landslide win practically assured in the coming election, the decision of P.M. Briceño to make the call eight months early inevitably leads to the speculation that perhaps he anticipates some harsh economic winds to be blowing in the months ahead that could dampen the spirit of the electorate, and indeed there are indications of such possibilities. Having conquered the dreaded Super Bond so early in this term in office, will the smooth ride soon be over for this PUP government, and are the Belizean people being asked to give their nod now to the government which will lead them through some rough economic times in the very near future? 

Looking back at our country’s young history, it is clear that our former colonial masters were not happy with independence premier George Price and the Belizean people in 1981. After all, it was these same Belizean people who had welcomed Price back home with banners of support declaring “contact or not contact”, after the then Governor had accused him of trying to sell out the country to Guatemala “lock, stock and barrel” during secret meetings in London back in 1959-60. Indeed, once the U.N.-promoted independence talks had begun, there was pressure from the British, and later from the USA, to get Belize to give up something to Guatemala in exchange for removing the headache of the “Anglo-Guatemala dispute” from the shoulders of the British government. The Heads of Agreement that Price had signed with the British to seal the deal for our Independence, had blown up in the face of the U.K. when Belizeans rioted in the streets, causing the Governor to call a State of Emergency, even while preparations were being made for our U.N.-mandated Independence Day on September 21, 1981. Had Price tricked them again? With the glorious achievement of our Independence with full sovereignty and territorial integrity, it would have seemed that the new Belizean nation should have received a good “sending-off package” from its erstwhile colonial rulers. But it didn’t happen that way. Neither did the British provide a “Defense Guarantee”, nor was much help coming the way of the young government to withstand the economic storm that soon followed and culminated with the first UDP general election victory in 1984. According to www.pup.bz, “This terrible defeat was due to a combination of factors that included a down-turn in the world economy that affected the domestic economy.”

The rallying cry of the then Opposition UDP under new leader Manuel Esquivel was, “Time for a Change,” and indeed the Belizean people were hungry for change. But not all the changes were pleasing, and the PUP was called back into government in the 1989 general elections, with George Price returning as prime minister.

Again, with Price leading the Belizean nation, efforts were started at the instigation of the British and the Americans, to have something worked out with Guatemala that would satisfy them and absolve the British of any perceived responsibility in the case, although they had declared, on Belize attaining its independence, that the “Anglo-Guatemalan dispute” had now become a “Belize-Guatemala differendum”. Progress was seemingly being made with a Maritime Areas Act under the Price government, which the Manuel Esquivel-led UDP eventually joined with the PUP government to support, only to have legendary statesman Philip Goldson break from the UDP to form a National Alliance for Belize Rights (NABR) in rejection of the MAA. Again, in the midst of all these negotiations, the Belizean economy under P.M. Price was not robust, and while there may be speculation about the cause of such, it is undeniable that, when Price declared “Job done!” and dissolved the House a year and a quarter early and called for general elections in 1993, it was peculiarly coincidental that the British took that time to declare that they would be removing their troops from Price Barracks, leaving the nation without a strong physical deterrent to the Guatemalan threat. Did the British again, through economic and political/security pressure, exact revenge against national hero George Price?

The busts of both national heroes, Rt. Hon. George Price and Hon. Philip S.W. Goldson, adorn the western and northern entrances, respectively, of the commercial capital, Belize City. And neither will have an influence on the outside forces that may try to impact conditions in Belize to sway the coming election one way or the other. However, P.M. John Briceño may have his own weather watch and concerns about impending forces that may be conspiring to make the road ahead rough for Belize, and thus turn a fickle electorate towards a change, however uncertain that change may be. With our case with Guatemala still lodged at the ICJ, the British are unlikely to still hold a gripe about that situation; but the new American leadership is fraught with ominous possibilities, especially in light of Belize’s principled and public stance along with South Africa et. al. in its charge of genocide against staunch American ally Israel at the ICJ. The very strange refusal recently of a vital batch of sterile screwworm flies to battle our screwworm infestation crisis reeks of stark disregard for our plight at best, and at worst, a direct message of punishment from the most powerful nation on earth, which can only spell likely economic pressure for Belize in the months ahead.

When the brilliant diplomatic and strategic heads of the United Kingdom and the United States of America drafted their strategic plan for this little piece of God’s earth called Belize and its messianic-style leader, George Price, they were likely bewildered and dismayed and privately embarrassed that the then mere 150,000 of these mainly African/Mayan/Mestizo/Garifuna Belizeans had somehow prevailed with their “peaceful, constructive, Belizean revolution” and marched away in triumph with their new Belizean nation, all 8,867 square miles of mainland/island territory, “united, sovereign, and independent”. In facing the threat from outside our shores, the Belizean people have proven their resilience and defiance against all odds; but it is to internal pressures, especially economic, that they have been vulnerable. And it may be with that in mind, that current P.M. John Briceño, seemingly with absolutely overwhelming odds favoring his party over a splintered Opposition, has seen it fit to call elections eight months early.  Belizeans, are we in for some very tough days ahead?                     

(Ed. Note: Belize general elections were held on September 4, 1989, and on June 30, 1993.)