There is a great deal of ruling faction pressure on PUP Leader (Prime Minister), Hon. Said Musa, to be more aggressive and confrontational in dealing with the Kremandala problem. It appears that the PUP Leader has decided to address the Kremandala problem by bringing all the pressure he can on the Lake Independence area representative, Hon. Cordel Hyde, a Kremandala product who joined the then Opposition PUP in 1994 as part of a working agreement between the PUP and Kremandala.

That working agreement was conceived on the PUP?s part because of their Southside disaster in the 1993 general elections, a 16?13 defeat which constituted a shocking, searing and bitter experience for the blue. The PUP lost all six seats on the Southside in 1993. Since the Kremandala agreement, they have won four of six Southside in 1998, and two of six Southside in 2003. In essence then, they have fought the UDP to a draw in an area, Southside, which has traditionally been viewed as somewhat of a red stronghold.

The August 12 G-7 revolt at the Cabinet level, however, featured two ministers, Transport Minister Cordel Hyde and Tourism Minister Mark Espat, who are linked to Kremandala, besides being the only two PUP Southside area representatives.

Mr. Musa?s immediate response was to go to Corozal, the PUP?s traditional stronghold, to shore up his leadership credibility. In the short term, that move has worked beautifully for the Prime Minister, who has become so strong within his own party that he has called a national party convention for February 20 of the New Year.

The Corozal move has been, nevertheless, somewhat uncomfortable for Mr. Musa. The Corozal caudillo, Hon. Florencio Marin, was a big reason for Said Musa?s historic 1983 defeat when Said challenged Louis Sylvestre for the PUP chairmanship. And as late as 1996, of course, Mr. Marin was Mr. Musa?s competition for the party leadership when each sought to replace the now PUP Leader Emeritus, Rt. Hon. George Price.

On the UDP side, the replacement of Herbert Panton (who went off to study law in Guyana in September) as GUARDIAN editor by John Avery, has resulted in a virtual cessation of attacks on Kremandala and Evan X Hyde, attacks which Mr. Panton had apparently found to boost his street sales. On the UDP?s WAVE Radio side, on the other hand, Joe Bradley, Sr., remains as out of control as Junior was during the 2003 campaign.

Avery?s replacement of Panton has weakened the Michael Finnegan faction of the UDP, but the Hon. Mesopotamia area representative, officially UDP Party Whip, remains powerful enough to be considered the red?s de facto Deputy Leader.

The Christmas season is a more sober one in Belize than usual, because the PUP Government of Belize has to raise taxes, and the Opposition UDP know that they have to do so. The raising of taxes always provides substantial political opportunity for the Opposition, but they are not sure how to proceed. What we mean is that there are no elections until municipals in March of 2006, and there is no history in this nation of a government being forced into early general elections. The UDP tested the waters with some recent civil disobedience, featuring Kenny Morgan, but the party is traditionally a middle class organization which is not comfortable with street action. It is only serious street action which could precipitate early general elections, and the UDP, as it stands, is not capable of such. So they are hoping for someone(s) to do something(s) from which they would benefit.

From Partridge Street, the view is not pleasant. To a large extent, what happens next year will depend on how the business people and the trade unions react to the higher taxes. In a poor country like Belize, there is a permanent underclass of people who are waiting for the opportunity to create disorder. All they require is for the business and working classes to become fed up enough with the government corruption to express themselves publicly.

The PUP are not afraid of disorder. Needless to say, the PUP do not wish for disorder. The only Belizeans who do so wish are the ?permanent underclass? to which we referred in the previous paragraph. But the PUP are not afraid, because they are not intimidated by the UDP.

Kremandala?s opinion are that there is an irony within the present situation, in that the Prime Minister has adopted many of the emergency fiscal measures proposed by the G-7 Ministers, but in the political area within the party and the government, the G-7 rebels themselves, except for Jose Coye, have been demoted and pressured. In fact, the G-7 is now G-6, with Hon. Godfrey Smith having chosen to be restored to the ruling faction?s good graces and having been promised a plum on February 20.

The UDP see the G-6 as a threat where the 2008 general elections are concerned. It is important for the UDP that the ruling Musa/Fonseca remain firmly in control, and that Musa/Fonseca appear to be firmly in control, so that the UDP can prepare a massive corruption indictment for 2008.

At the base of the social pyramid, the people are angry. They will become more angry when taxes are raised and their standard of living is further eroded. The stark reality of Belize?s situation, however, is that a democratically elected government has three plus years left to rule out of a five-year term. Along with that anger in the streets, therefore, goes a feeling called frustration. Frustration and anger make a volatile cocktail.

We shall see what we shall see.