For now, we wish to lament the fact that the ?guided democracy? which PUP insiders have joked about for decades, has degenerated into outright party oligarchy. The rank and file of the People?s United Party have no say in the party. They accept everything they are told and any appointment they are handed from Independence Hall. Except for the leadership decision convention in 1996 in Belmopan, PUP conventions make no important decisions. The decisions are made the day before the conventions, which then become occasions when the rank and file of the party are regaled with food and beer. Story done. PUP all the way.

Now back to ferment. The PUP is a party which has a preponderance of light-skinned or Latin type people at the executive level, so the ?other? deputy leader post has always been considered a ?dark? appointment. The ?dark? spot is presently held by Belize Rural North?s Maxwell Samuels, but Max is ?lame duck? for two years now, dead in the water. So the ?dark? spot is up for grabs.

Pickstock?s Godfrey Smith reportedly has the inside track on the ?dark? spot since the December 28 dismemberment of G-7 at the Cabinet level. The interesting aspect of the situation is that Caribbean Shores? Jose Coye, who, for all intents and purposes, colluded with Smith in the December 28 displacement of their erstwhile G-7 colleagues ? Albert?s Mark Espat; Lake I?s Cordel Hyde; and Senator Eamon Courtenay, is also challenging for the ?dark? spot.

This is a major development, not only in itself, but for the implications for G-7. Those implications are in the nature of funeral rites. Musa/Fonseca have now completely won the battle inside the PUP, but outside in the streets the financial and political crisis for the Musa/Fonseca administration continues, as it has for weeks.

Let?s return to the ?Northern Caucus? deputy leader spot. Johnny Brice?o is in big trouble. The political performance of Orange Walk during the uproar of the last three weeks has exposed the fact that Johnny has slipped substantially in popularity. Corozal, in contrast, was much more in line with PUP government policies, and the fact that Vildo was able to keep the lid on the Corozal pot, raised his stock in the PUP at the same time Johnny?s was continuing to fall.

In retrospect, we can see that SpeedNet was a major distraction for the Deputy Prime Minister. SpeedNet is a multimillion-dollar investment, so the distraction is understandable. Johnny?s problem began when his support for G-7, which confronted the Prime Minister on Thursday morning, August 12, had to be by long distance e-mail. He was out of the country until Sunday, August 15, and had to go into G-7 meetings in Belize City for the rest of that day. Meanwhile, from Thursday to Sunday of that fateful week, his opponents in the Northern Caucus, led by Vildo and Florencio Marin (no relatives), were able to consolidate the Northern Caucus (including Orange Walk East?s Dave Burgos and Orange Walk South?s Ismael Cal) in exaggerated opposition to Brice?o and G-7. The Marin/Marin Northern Caucus was able to convince the North that G-7 was a Belize City thing, thus isolating Brice?o and Orange Walk North?s Servulo Baeza. On August 16, Johnny, in effect, lost control of Burgos and Cal to Vildo and Florencio.

A few weeks after that, Johnny was removed as leader of the Northern Caucus, a position he had taken from Florencio, who probably had revenge on his mind. Johnny lost face.

The decision to acquiesce in the Espat-Hyde-Courtenay sacrifice weakened Johnny further, because the Musa/Fonseca combine now had him exactly where they wanted him. Vildo Marin has proven more loyal. Post December 28, Vildo also proved to be more in control of his district. So, Johnny?s back is against the wall.

(The fifth deputy leader candidate is Toledo East?s Mike Espat, older brother of the controversial Luke. Mike supported Florencio Marin in the 1996 leadership convention, and was ostracized for that. Like Florencio, he finally returned to Musa/Fonseca favour last August as a reward for loyalty during the G-7 crisis.)

There is a belief in some PUP quarters that Godfrey Smith, a member of the August 12 G-7, returned his loyalty to Musa-Fonseca just days after August 12, and for this reason became the Minister who benefited most from December 28.

Johnny, as we have said, was distracted by SpeedNet. But there is no excuse we can see for Jose Coye?s December 28 behaviour. What was he thinking? He lost credibility amongst the general public and now he is in trouble within the party itself, because Godfrey has the support of the ruling faction. In an open convention, Joe would be a formidable force, but the PUP is a party oligarchy. Remember?

The PUP knows how to fight without exposing division to the general public. One time they failed to do this was in 1983. The convention that year exposed serious ideological incompatibility within the blue. In February 2005, the PUP ruling faction know these matters must be settled by February 19, not February 20.

The politics is fascinating. Stay tuned.