There is a phenomenon in electoral politics which is called the “swing,” and it excites political analysts in much the same way major hurricanes appear to excite meteorologists. The first significant swing in Belize’s modern electoral politics, which began after World War II, took place in the October 1974 general election, but the first massive swing occurred in the December 1984 general election.

The 1974 swing is almost never discussed in Belize, because it was of no real consequence, in the sense that the ruling People’s United Party (PUP) remained in power. But, the 1974 swing was of some consequence, because basically the same Opposition group, which, organized as the NIPDM for the December 1969 general election had then won only one out of the eighteen House seats, came back as the United Democratic Party (UDP) in 1974 and won six of the eighteen seats, while coming within a mere seventeen votes of winning three more seats, which would have thrown the House into a stunning 9-9 deadlock. One of the reasons the 1974 swing is almost never discussed is because the swing had something to do with the UBAD Party, and the UDP leaders have historically always avoided the subject of UBAD.

I will give you an example of why the 1984 swing was so classic, and then return to the 1974 swing. There had been a gerrymandering of Belize’s eighteen electoral divisions in early/mid 1984 which increased the number of House seats to twenty eight.

In the case of the Collet constituency, which the PUP’s Harry Courtenay had won by just one vote in 1974 and by two hundred twenty-four in 1979, the gerrymandering group essentially broke Collet into three divisions – Lake Independence, Collet, and Queen’s Square. The conventional wisdom at the time was that the PUP was giving Queen’s Square to the UDP in return for Lake I and Collet, which were thought to be PUP territories.

Earlier in 1984, before the gerrymandering, the UDP had held a candidate convention to decide between Dean Barrow and Hubert Elrington for the standard bearer position in Collet. Both Mr. Barrow and Mr. Elrington had entered electoral politics as winners in the UDP’s landslide victory in the December 1983 Belize City Council election. Mr. Barrow defeated Mr. Elrington in the UDP’s Collet convention of 1984.

When the PUP subsequently divided Collet into the aforementioned three seats, Mr. Barrow, as the convention winner, was offered his choice of the three constituencies. Well advised by his bosom buddy, Michael Finnegan, who knew Collet like the palm of his hand because of having been campaign manager for the UDP’s Kenneth Tillett in the 1974 and 1979 races, Mr. Barrow chose Queen’s Square, where many UDP-sympathetic public officers resided.

All things being equal, the UDP’s Hubert Elrington in Lake Independence and Frank Lizama in Collet were expected to lose to the PUP’s Carlos Diaz and Remijio Montejo, respectively. But the swing in the 1984 general election was so massive in favor of the UDP and against the ruling PUP that Elrington and Lizama were swept into office. The lesson is, all bets are off when a swing is massive: any number can play.

Let me now return to the 1974 swing. Of the six UDP seats, two were in Toledo, which was not an earthshaking occurrence. In overwhelming PUP victories in 1954 and 1965, for example, Toledo had returned candidates (Charles Westby in 1954 and Edwin Morey in 1965) opposed to the PUP.

In 1974, Mr. Goldson and Dean Lindo won their Albert and Fort George seats. It was Mr. Goldson’s third consecutive victory in Albert, and Mr. Lindo had been only narrowly beaten in 1969. So, these UDP victories were not surprises.

Dangriga could have been considered a surprise.  My compadre, Paul Guerrero, won comfortably over the PUP incumbent, Allan Arthurs. The proprietor of Griga’s iconic Eden Rose club, Pags and his wife, Din Din, always hosted the UBAD group on our frequent visits to the culture capital in 1969 and 1970.

In the case of the sixth and final UDP constituency victory in 1974, Joe Andrews defeated the PUP’s Assad Shoman, but the surprise here had taken place five years earlier in 1969, when the newcomer Andrews had been defeated by a single vote by the longtime PUP incumbent, Hector Silva. For Andrews to come back and win five years later, was obviously not against the grain.

Andrews’ 1974 victory was especially understandable when you remember that the old National Independence Party (NIP) had defeated the PUP in the San Ignacio/Santa Elena Town Board election of December 1972. That Opposition victory went under the radar, because overall the PUP had won the 1972 Town Boards nationwide.

Very few people outside of Cayo would have been aware of how popular and influential the NIP’s Teodocio Ochoa was in the twin towns, at least in my opinion. To a certain extent, it appeared to me, Ochoa made Andrews. My sense is that some UBAD people, under the leadership of UBAD Secretary-General Norman Fairweather, had assisted the NIP in that December 1972 Town Board, but I personally know very little about the UBAD involvement there.

So then, there was a definite swing against the PUP in 1974, but that swing was reversed in 1979.  How was that swing reversed? That is a $64,000 question. And then, in 1984 there was the aforementioned massive swing against the PUP, which led to the UDP’s first term of office from 1984 to 1989.

Now, here’s the thing with a swing. It is impossible to see where it comes from or pinpoint how it begins. In the case of the weather people, catastrophic Category 5 hurricanes begin as a tiny area of “disturbed weather,” usually off the coast of West Africa. But Belize, for its part, is vulnerable to late season Cat 5 hurricanes which begin as small problems off the northern coast of South America. By the time monsters like Mitch in 1998 destroy parts of Central America, for instance, few of us remember how and where their careers and journeys began.

The conventional reads have the UDP winning big and easily in March next year in Belize City. The UDP has been on a winning streak since 2003, and Belize City is their stronghold. In addition, the UDP is loaded with money. So now, from whence would any kind of swing originate? If any kind of swing occurs in March, the chances are it would have begun with an area of disturbed weather called Gapi.  Dig it.

Power to the people.