During an average year, there are 11 named storms (maximum sustained surface winds between 39-73 mph), six hurricanes (maximum sustained surface winds of at least 74 mph) and two major hurricanes (maximum sustained surface winds exceeding 110 mph, categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Last year saw a record-setting season, with 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, 7 of them major (Category 3 or higher) hurricanes, substantially exceeding the pre-season predictions. The prediction was for 12 to 15 named storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes and 3 to 5 of them major hurricanes.

Belize forecaster, Frank Tench, of the National Meteorological Service, stresses preparedness.

?As normal, preparedness is very important in the hurricane season, as any other hurricane season, because we are in a part of the region where hurricanes can affect us,? said Tench. ?It becomes even more important because of the fact that the current forecast is for a very active hurricane season.?

He said that the current 2006 hurricane season forecast also indicates a fairly high probability of storms passing through the Caribbean.

?Exactly where they are going to hit, we can?t tell,? he added.

Forecaster Tench advises that families and businesses should plan what they will do in the event of a hurricane. Those who don?t yet have a plan should make one, he said.

?Sit down and work out a plan for your family, your organization, and let everybody know the details of the plan. Will you sit out the hurricane where you are or evacuate? Where will you evacuate to?? he said. ?To be more specific, start thinking about stockpiling supplies and necessary emergency equipment.?

Those emergency items include flashlights, batteries, and containers to store water.

?If you can?t get all your food supplies at one shopping, get them over a period of time, between now and major part of season,? he advised.

He notes that Belize is often threatened by tropical storms and hurricanes between September and October, but we have been known to be under threat as early as August.

This year has already seen the early advance of the rainy season with record downpours in May in most parts of the country. Tench said that at the stations in Melinda and Maya King, Stann Creek, recorded rainfall levels were double their normal amounts, while stations in the north saw as much as 50% more rain than normal. The only station that recorded below normal levels was Big Falls in Toledo.

Belizean meteorologists say that we continue to experience a multi-decadal cycle of heightened hurricane activity, which is expected to continue for another five to 10 years.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its May 22, 2006, prediction report, ?Warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are the factors that collectively will favor the development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity.?

It furthermore explains that warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm?s building cloud structure.

?This confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere is strongly related to a climate pattern known as the multi-decadal signal, which has been in place since 1995. Since then, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two below-normal seasons during the El Ni?o years of 1997 and 2002,? the report adds.

The storm names for 2006 are Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William.

The hurricane season ends on November 30. The Atlantic, as we go to press, is registering no cyclone activity.