Coming out of their July 1 national convention in Corozal Town, the ruling PUP had stepped up their general election preparations, and some of their insiders were suggesting that the election would be called in November.
Before 2003, the last time the incumbent government had called a general election in March, was way back in 1965. From 1969 to 1984, general elections were called in December, with the exception of 1974, when they were held in late October. Then the 1989 general elections were held in early September, 1993 in late June, 1998 in late August, and the aforementioned 2003 in March.
The feeling had always been that December was a good time to call elections because of the heightened economic activity and spending in the pre-Christmas weeks. January and February were thought to be months of post-Pascua depression, not a good time for the incumbents to go to the polls.
I paid attention to the November predictions from PUP sources, because they sounded logical. But now it is being said that the elections will be in February. Personally, I still think that the elections may be called in December, in which case the House would have to be dissolved this week or next week.
But it really doesn’t matter much any more. All it is now, is a waiting game. The die has been cast, so to speak. Propaganda wise, the PUP are doing the same thing which failed disastrously in the March 2006 municipal elections – trying to ride a Said Musa rhythm. Additionally, however, they have zeroed in on anything negative they can find in the UDP municipal governments elected last March. Dale Trujeque has therefore been a godsend for the ruling party.
The UDP have been reaping a harvest from the PUP corruption fields since July of 2004, and while the law of diminishing returns always applies, oil industry irregularities and real estate grabs, even as we speak, continue to provide grist for the Opposition mill.
The so-called “first past the post” system we have in Belize does not encourage third party and independent candidates, but Toledo’s Wil Maheia has been kicking up an amount of dust. Corozal-based We, The People, have allied themselves with Maheia’s PNP, but the Belmopan-based VIP continue to have some issues with Maheia.
I think that with the mysterious disappearance of the National Reform Party (NRP), the third parties should move quickly and decisively to create a united front for greater national credibility. I always felt that the third parties should have done this already. They should have ignored the weird NRP, but the reality until the last few months was that the NRP talked the most money and appeared to be the best organized of the third parties. So I suppose the other third parties were intimidated.
There has never been an election in Belize where a third party has offered a full slate of candidates. The voters of our country are very knowledgeable. No matter how much they like an independent candidate in a particular constituency, the fact that such a candidate has no chance of being a Cabinet Minister in an elected government, always costs such a candidate his/her chance of winning. I am saying that the third parties must put aside their differences and field a full slate of candidates. Ignore the NRP.
Let me emphasize that these are purely personal opinions, and I have learned to be humble in such matters. Since 1979 I have always had a party I preferred to win, for personal and business reasons. I would say that 1993 was perhaps an exception to the rule. For the upcoming general elections, since both of the major parties have indicated that Kremandala has nothing to gain from their victory, then I would personally support a third party, if only for the heck of it. But, I repeat, they must offer a full slate of candidates.
Our political system keeps giving rise to governments with arrogant and disrespectful tendencies. The best of men get into power in Belize, and they become rotten. The system contributes to this, inexorably it does appear.
The argument for the first-past-the post system, as opposed to the proportional representation system, is that it gives you strong governments. Well, people like me have had enough of so-called “strong” governments in this country. We have become disillusioned.
One imagines that the local oligarchy and the foreign investors are comfortable with the present system. Most of the time they get things to go their way in a fairly expeditious manner, once they learn where to send the money and how much. But the masses of the Belizean people have come to believe that once they elect one of the two major parties to govern them for five years, they rapidly lose control of the same politicians who had been begging for their vote.
For many, many Belizeans then, December, February, March? No importa mucho. No importa nada. No importa.