Photo: Diagram showing El Niño and La Niña patterns
The cooling influence of La Niña over the past three years may have lowered global temperature-rise slightly – but 2023 and 2024 could possibly be the hottest years on record with the start of this new El Niño pattern.
by Marco Lopez
BELIZE CITY, Thurs. Apr. 27, 2023
Climate models predict a return of the El Niño, and with it record-breaking global temperatures. An El Niño is normally associated with record-breaking temperatures globally, and while whether this will occur in 2023 or 2024 is not yet known definitively, climate scientists believe that it is “more likely than not.” This warming, like the last recording-breaking year in 2016, will be fueled by climate change, and the continued emission of greenhouse gasses.
During an El Niño, Tropical Pacific winds blowing west along the equator slow down – allowing warmer waters trapped near Asia to spread and be pushed east. The rainfall, winds, and currents over the Tropical Pacific affect weather across the world. The shift in wind intensity from strong to slow determines opposite phenomena of El Niño and La Niña, determining the warmth or coolness of ocean surface temperature
During the La Niña, upwelling – when warm water is replaced by cooler waters from the bottom of the ocean – typically takes place frequently, thanks to the strong winds. When those winds die down, El Niño presents itself and is indicative of warmer conditions. This is known as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The possibility of a strong El Niño developing by the end of 2023 is highly likely, models show. Continually high records of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 will fuel the warming globally. The effects of weather patterns like the ENSO are also exacerbated by human-caused climate change.
The record for the world’s hottest year which was set in 2016 will likely be broken in either 2023 or 2024, projections support. The last eight years are among the hottest years ever recorded, with the global temperature now 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850 to 1990 average.