by Marco Lopez

BELIZE CITY, Thurs. Sept. 26, 2024

Yesterday, the Statistical Institute of Belize (SIB) released its second-quarter data on the consumer price index, external trade, consumer confidence index (CPI), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Across the country, the high cost of food continues to drive up the inflation rate according to the SIB’s recent statistics.

Statistician Melvin Perez presented on the Consumer Price Index from January to October 2024.

“Overall, the average cost of regularly purchased goods and services increased by 3.8 percent,” Perez pointed out. Higher prices were recorded across all types of food products – especially vegetables, dairy products, cereal, and meats.

“I must mention that this category contributed the most to the overall increase,” Perez commented.

While Food and Alcoholic Beverages saw the greatest increase – categories like Restaurants and Accommodation Services, Clothing and Footwear, and Personal Care items also drove up inflation.

In August 2024, the only decrease recorded in the CPI was in the category of Information and Communication. Among municipalities, Belmopan once again saw the greatest rate of inflation across the country.

Consumer Confidence down

Statistics from the SIB outline that consumer confidence has declined since the last National Consumer Confidence Index. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) measures the sentiments of consumers concerning the general economic condition within the country.

This index ranges from 0 (completely pessimistic) to 100 (completely optimistic) – the index stood at 43.6 for the month of August 2024 – down by 3.8 % from the July 2024 record. A value greater than 50 indicates that consumers are more optimistic about the economy and their economic prospects.

Statistician 1 at the SIB, Jacklyn Sabal shared, “Essentially it is a perception study and one of few economic indicators that attempts to assess how exactly consumers are feeling.”

Sabal added, “For the month of August, consumers felt more pessimistic about making major purchases of durable goods. Consumer confidence for durable goods decreased from 39.8 to 37.4, and they also felt less optimistic about future expectations. So, their households’ future financial situation and future general economic conditions, consumers felt less optimistic about that index. Sentiment among urban consumers decreased by 1.6% from 41.7 to 41.1, while sentiment among rural consumers decreased more sharply by 5.4% from 48.3 to 45.7.”

Exports and Imports Down

In the category of Merchandise Trade, the SIB reports a total value of goods imported at $219.2 million for the month of August 2024. This is a considerable decrease of 20.2 percent or $55.6 million from August 2023. Similarly, total domestic exports recorded for August 2024 amounted to $43.5 million – down by 39.2 percent or $28 million when compared to exports for August 2023.

“Machinery and transport equipment went up from 387.7 million to 488.8 million. This is a rise of 101.1 million which was due to the importation of several high-value items and vehicles.” Roald Orellana Statistician II at SIB stated.

For the first eight months of this year, January to August 2024 – merchandise imports amounted to $1.935 billion – representing an 8% increase from the same period last year. Exports for that same period were recorded at $307.1 million – down 1.5% from the same period last year.

Sugar revenue saw a significant decline of $18.5 million during the same period – from $136.9 in 2023 to $118.4 in 2024. Earnings from marine products, specifically lobster meat and shrimp declined by $2.4 million in 2024.

On the other hand, banana exports recorded strong performance over this period. Rising by nearly 50% from $37.3 million in 2023 to $55.6 million in the same period in 2024.

Gross Domestic Product

The total value of all goods and services for the second quarter months of April to June 2024 was recorded at $1.432 billion. This represents a 10.5 % increase compared to the same period in 2023. According to the SIB, economic growth was seen across all three sectors of the economy. Strong performance in the major agriculture industry has boosted the performance of the primary sector – which has recorded decreases over the past several quarters.

The release from SIB states, “All three major agricultural crops saw a rise in output, attributed mainly to improved weather conditions during the months of April to June 2024.” Despite the growth in the primary sector, the fishing industry decreased by 4.1% during the quarter – attributed to a decrease in shrimp production.