With Belizean party politics in heavy disarray, the attention of most urban Belizeans is focused on the television pyrotechnics which have to do with the presidential election which will take place in the United States a month from now.

The U.S. has a population of between 350 and 400 million people, only a third of the populations of China or India, for example. But the United States is the most powerful nation in the world militarily, and it is definitely the most wealthy society in this Western Hemisphere, and probably in the world overall.

Only Mexico separates Belize from the U.S. where land mass is concerned, and there are hundreds of thousands of Belizeans who live and work in America, both legally and illegally. The American presidential election will have a significant impact on Belize and Belizeans, with the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, promising “mass deportations” if he becomes president again.

I never studied U.S. history in an academic setting, but I’ve done a lot of reading over the years. For me, the key thing to note presently is that the United States is a very divided country where the population is concerned, and it is a country where there are many, many high-powered guns. It is probably safe to say that America is a violent country, and there are four times more guns there than citizens.

The rhetoric and the mood in the United States are growing more tense day by day, and what this suggests to me is that we may have a repeat of the January 6, 2020 uprising, and perhaps, even a repeat of the American Civil War which took place between 1861 and 1865. 

There are many divisions among the American people, and if you are a serious student of the situation, I suggest you try to obtain a copy of Colin Woodard’s American Nations, which the author describes as ”A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America”. 

Most of us observers know what is the division between the industrial North and the agricultural South in the U.S. That fundamental division was the cause of the 1861-1865 Civil War. The issue was slavery, which the South required for its productivity and prosperity. The abolitionist North was developing on the basis of factory manufacturing, banking, and so on.

Today, we have a major third America called the Silicon Valley, in the northwestern part of the country, where the technological industries which involve computers, smart phones, and the like, have developed.

Sexual politics in the United States is highly significant. The Southern states, which are described as “red”, are evangelical Christians to a great extent, while the liberal Northern states, called “blue”, are more hedonistic and free-wheeling. Abortion is a major issue dividing the blue and red states, with the blue states supporting abortion passionately, whereas it is condemned by the red ones.  

Immigration is another very big issue. The red states are afraid that immigrants of color, both black and Latin, will overwhelm them. This is the race issue. In some ways, this is a complex issue, because some black Americans also feel that their jobs are threatened by the waves of immigrants who have been coming across America’s southern border.

Both the red and the blue states basically support Israel, no matter what, so I won’t discuss Israel, Iran, Lebanon and the explosive Middle East. This is a situation which probably has existential implications for planet earth. It is scary.

I haven’t even mentioned climate change as an issue which seriously divides American voters, but it does.

The midwestern states in the U.S., such as Michigan and Wisconsin, and some southwestern states, like Arizona and Nevada, have some votes in a so-called electoral college which are critical. A candidate can win the overall popular vote, due to huge victories in large states like New York and California, such as Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, did in 2016, and lose the presidential election to a Republican. This is how Donald Trump became president in 2016: it was the complicated electoral college which put him there.

So, you see, this is an election with complex considerations. All the expert analysts are saying that the election is very, very close. In a debate between the vice-presidential candidates on Tuesday night, the Republican candidate refused to admit that Mr. Trump had lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, the Democrat. So then, JD Vance, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, was, indirectly, justifying the January 6, 2020 attack on the U.S. Capitol and American democracy.

The question then, of course, would be: will the Republicans, armed and dangerous as they proved themselves to be on January 6, 2020, accept a presidential result wherein Kamala Harris, the Democrat and a black woman, defeats Trump, the Republican? As the old song says, the days dwindle down to a precious few …