I’ve heard one or two people say that the ruling PUP is sure to win the next general election in Belize, scheduled for some time in 2025. Their reasoning is that the Opposition UDP is so massively divided that there is no real opposition to the blue.

I think I understand the logic of these thinkers, but need to remind them of two general elections in Belize where the ruling party appeared sure to win, these being the case of the ruling PUP in 1993 and the case of the ruling UDP in 2012. These election results suggest that there is not such a thing as a sure thing in Belizean politics, two reasons being the fickleness of the Belizean voter and the wild world of campaign financing.

Consider the June 1993 general election. Early that year, the PUP’s Jorge Espat had easily won a bye-election for the Freetown seat from which the UDP’s Derek Aikman had been forced because of a bipartisan conspiracy which had Aikman declared a bankrupt by the two major banks at the time. 

There were two Opposition parties at that time — the official Opposition UDP, led by Dr. Manuel Esquivel, and the National Alliance for Belizean Rights (NABR), which the Hon. Philip Goldson had formed in 1991 to protest the fact that the UDP, to which he belonged, had openly sided with the ruling PUP on the matter of the Maritime Areas Act. 

There were Belize City Council elections held in March of 1993, and NABR fielded a full slate of nine candidates, which, of course, divided the Opposition vote, and so the ruling PUP won very easily over the UDP and NABR candidates.

Overconfident at that point, the PUP dissolved the House of Representatives at the end of May (general elections were not due for fifteen months) and called general elections for June 30, 1993. But somehow, the UDP and NABR resolved their differences and presented a united slate. The deal promised to the iconic Mr. Goldson in order for him to join in this UDP/NABR coalition was that, if the coalition won, the coalition would repeal the Maritime Areas Act.

In the middle of the June month of campaigning, the UDP/NABR desperately promised free education and free land to the Belizean people if they won. Stunningly, the coalition, despite polling 2,000 fewer votes than the PUP, won a 16-13 majority of seats. (Esquivel’s UDP reneged on their pre-victory promise to repeal the MAA.)

In the case of the 2012 general election, the ruling UDP seemed sure to win because the PUP was divided, because of leadership issues. 

After losing the February 2008 general election, PUP leader Said Musa had resigned his leadership. 

John Briceño narrowly defeated Francis Fonseca, who was supported by both Musa and PUP Leader Emeritus, Rt. Hon. George Price, to become the new PUP leader. Briceño’s crucial backing came from Hon. Mark Espat, the PUP’s Albert constituency representative, and Hon. Cordel Hyde, the PUP’s Lake Independence area representative.

In late October of 2011, Briceño, under various kinds of internal pressure, resigned from PUP leadership, and Deputy Leader Mark Espat was endorsed for leadership by 30 of the 31 PUP constituencies. But, after 11 days of interim leadership in November of 2011, interim because it had not been cemented by a national party convention, Espat abruptly withdrew from leadership, and within a week or so, Francis Fonseca was declared PUP leader by the “big boys.”

When the Dean Barrow-led ruling UDP quickly called general elections for either February or March of 2012, both Espat and Hyde were alienated from the Fonseca leadership, hence the PUP was divided. Cordel Hyde explained that his son was mortally ill in New York City, but Mark Espat seemed more open in his hostility to the PUP status quo. The PUP ended up losing both the Lake I and Albert seats, but almost won the election overall.

This is one election which has always befuddled me, because the PUP was divided, and the UDP seemed sure to win. There are people, however, who have claimed that the billionaire Lord Michael Ashcroft was involved in that election big time behind the scenes and was responsible for the PUP’s surprise performance under Mr. Fonseca.

My point in this column is that there is no such thing as guaranteed victory for a political party in Belizean general elections. The Belizean voter is not to be taken for granted. And the idea that divided factions of the Opposition, such as UDP and NABR in 1993, and the Shyne Barrow and Tracy Panton UDP factions as we end 2024, can come together in the twinkling of an eye, is evidenced, I submit, by the election campaigns of 1993 and 2012.