Earlier this week the court dismissed a case brought by a trio of concerned citizens (led by Jerry Enriquez) who were seeking a court order that the general election called by the Prime Minister for March 12 be put on hold until the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) carries out a redistricting exercise, so that the election complies with Section 90 (1) (a) of the Constitution. That section, one of two criteria set out for electoral boundaries to ensure that elections are fair, says that each division “shall have as nearly as may be an equal number of persons eligible to vote”; and as it stands today, a number of divisions are outside of that prescribed parameter.
The Belize Peace Movement (BPM) has also applied to the court for an order that would stay the March 12 election until a redistricting exercise is done. In 2020 the BPM pushed for redistricting before that year’s general election and was denied. Few expect a different verdict this time. The consensus across the land is that redistricting should have been done, but most accept that even if the court has the right to delay a general election to force that exercise, it is not likely that it would.
So, it’s about set in stone that on March 12, Belizeans will go to the polls to decide who will form the next government. As usual, the perennially present red (UDP) and blue (PUP) parties will be the main protagonists on Election Day. In our first-past-the-post electoral system, it is a two-party race; no outsider, third party or independent, has come within a mile of winning. But that hasn’t dissuaded those who run without hope from paying the entry fee to get their names on the ballot.
As this election draws near, the UDP camp is very unsettled, and it has been that way since October 2024. Both Hon. Moses Barrow and Hon. Tracy Panton claim leadership of the party, and in a number of constituencies both are poised to enter candidates. If, when the dust settles on Nomination Day, February 24, there are two UDP candidates in one or more constituencies, it will be a first, if we exclude the 2003 general election, when the UDP fielded Ms. Dianne Haylock, while known UDP, Wilfred Elrington, ran as an independent candidate. Incidentally, Elrington, who would contest later general elections as a UDP candidate, and win, outpolled Ms. Haylock in the 2003 election, 439 to 252.
The PUP gained a huge majority in the 2020 general election, 26 seats to 5 over the UDP, and it has won every election since—two municipal elections, and a bi-election in the Toledo East Division. If the 2022 village council election is included, they won that too. The PUP looks invincible coming on to the March 12 showdown, especially since the UDP is in disarray. If anyone was thinking of betting against the PUP, they would have to have the kind of faith that moves mountains to stay on that course after the party had a massive showing at the Belize City Center on Sunday.
But the saga on March 12 will play out under the sun, and in that space, apparently hopeless tales have had miraculous endings. It is as certain as it gets, that if there are to be surprises when the sun sets on March 12, by this weekend the two factions that wear red shirts will have had to embrace, kiss, and sing, ‘we want our country free, that is why we belong to the UDP’.
The election is shaping up to be entirely local. The Guatemalan claim is at the ICJ. Prominent members of both parties condemn Israel’s response to the Hamas attack. Belizeans in both parties want the US to remove the cruel embargo on Cuba. Both parties support Taiwan’s right to self-determination. And there is no LGBT divide between the main parties in Belize: the UDP drafted the original Equal Opportunities Bill, and some prominent PUPs would like to see it passed.
Maybe, because they have been consumed by their infighting, the UDP hasn’t discussed any concrete plans about how they would make our country better if they formed the government. If the UDP forms the government, they will not have earned it. Their main chances lie in two gifts: one, the instinctive suspicion that creeps into the breasts of voters when political leaders concede power a considerable period before they are mandated to do so (the 2025 election is set to take place 8 months before the present mandate runs out); and two, stubborn high prices at the stores despite the government’s efforts to rein them in.
Two of the three previous elections that were called very early – 1993 (14 months), 2012 (11 months), and 2015 (16 months) – started out as shoo-ins for the incumbent and ended up as cliffhangers. In the miracle of 1993, an upset victory for the opposition, the UDP and a breakaway faction, the NABR, coalesced when the election was called, and with promises they could never keep, an unexpected announcement by the British government that the majority of its garrison here would be pulled out, and an electorate that was suspicious about a PUP government that had taken loans at high interest rates from a foreign bank, the UDP won a narrow 16-13 victory.
The 2012 general election, called by a UDP government that had rolled over the PUP, 25 seats to 6, in the 2008 general election, was a nail biter: 17 seats for the UDP, 14 for the PUP. In that election, the incumbent UDP didn’t get to exhale until the results of the final three seats came in. In 2015, the UDP called the general election immediately after Prime Minister Dean Barrow announced that we had bought back BTL, and before a recently unified PUP could get battle-ready. The UDP won the 2015 election, 19 seats to 12.
Like almost every other country in the world, Belize is dogged by the high cost of living at this time. For various reasons, there’s been a massive increase in the price of imported products, and the price of food produced locally is up because of the high cost of imported fertilizers and pesticides, and unfavorable weather. The government can point to a number of initiatives it has undertaken to ease the burden on Belizeans, and those include a 50% plus increase in the minimum wage, increased employment, increased investment in small businesses, and policing the grocery shops to clamp down on price gouging.
While the UDP has not yet officially articulated a vision to reduce the cost of living, some party spokespersons have said that the magic wand to combat inflation is a reduction of the price of fuel. That is a continuing promise of all political parties, which to date no government has delivered on. The reality is that the only way government can reduce the price of fuel is through reducing the excise tax, and Belize is heavily dependent on that source of revenue. Any substantial reduction in the price of fuel would be majorly disruptive, because it would be accompanied by layoffs in the public sector and the closure or downsizing of critical public programs.
The UDP could get lucky with a sympathy vote. It could be argued that the party doesn’t deserve any, after having controlled government for close to 13 years, from 2008 to 2020. There are serious issues, bread and butter issues at the core of elections, but elections are also popularity contests. Belizeans have been rumored to vote for candidates just because they like them, and “against” candidates whom dehn spirit noh tek.
The biggest question today is, who are all the persons that will be in the race to the House. We’ll have the answers soon enough, on Monday, Nomination Day.