by Kristen Ku
BELIZE CITY, Mon. June 3, 2024
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st, and forecasts predict an above-normal level of tropical cyclone activity.
Typically, the Atlantic hurricane season averages 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. However, this season, which spans from June 1st to November 30th, is expected to see between 17 to 25 named storms, with 8 to 13 potentially developing into hurricanes.
Of these, 4 to 7 could reach major hurricane status. This is due to two primary factors: the high likelihood of La Niña conditions, and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures.
These factors are expected to provide more energy for tropical cyclone development, increasing the frequency and intensity of storms.
The roster of storm names for the 2024 season includes Alberto, Helene, Oscar, Beryl, Isaac, Patty, Chris, Joyce, Rafael, Debby, Kirk, Sara, Ernesto, Leslie, Tony, Francine, Milton, Valerie, Gordon, Nadine, and William.
Out of these, 11 are expected to develop into major hurricanes with winds surpassing 75 mph, and half of them could become storms with winds exceeding 115 mph.
Ronald Gordon, Belize’s Chief Meteorology Officer, had previously shared that while an active hurricane season is forecasted, this does not guarantee that Belize will be directly hit by a storm. In an April interview, Gordon explained, “That forecast is, of course, early. It’s preliminary. We’re in April. And from what we have seen in the past, there is some limited skills to those early season forecasts.”
He further noted that early indications of an active season do not necessarily translate to a direct impact on Belize.
In an interview today, Gordon now identified three key factors contributing to this forecast. The third factor being an active West African monsoon, which means more tropical waves or active tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa.
“These tropical waves often are the precursors for tropical cyclones and hurricanes,” he explained. He also pointed out that this is a basin-wide prediction, meaning it covers the entire Atlantic and does not specify where these systems will go.
“We remind the public that you must monitor the day-to-day weather forecasts when a tropical cyclone develops. That’s when the models are able to better say where it will go, and then we are able to alert persons at least two to three days in advance if something is coming in our direction. We monitor it and eventually go into a hurricane warning if needed,” Gordon advised.
The 2024 hurricane season predictions are notable not only for their high numbers, but also for their historical record, which, as Gordon mentioned, is perhaps one of the highest early season predictions ever made by NOAA.
Gordon mentioned that if these predictions materialize, the season may be similar to the 2020 hurricane season, which saw an unprecedented number of storms, leading to the use of names from the Greek alphabet. However, since 2022, meteorological services have decided to use a supplemental list of names instead of the Greek alphabet if the primary list of 21 names is exhausted.
Additionally, Gordon noted that Belize had some showers towards the end of last week, but it was not enough to mark the start of the rainy season. “Looking at the forecast, we are seeing an increase in moisture towards this weekend again, starting on Thursday and continuing into Friday and the weekend. We are monitoring closely and looking at each model run to see if it persists,” Gordon said.
He also mentioned the potential for thunderstorms, and the importance of monitoring for excessive rain that could lead to flooding.
Notably, the last hurricane to affect Belize was Hurricane Lisa in 2022, a Category 1 storm that passed over Belize City, delivering approximately six inches of rain and 80 mph winds.