BELIZE CITY, Thurs. Dec. 17, 2020– It seems a dream world away back in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, when Belize was, like a few of our Caribbean counterparts, a “poster child” of resistance to the spread of the deadly virus.  Positive tests were few and far between, and Belize’s first mortality from the dreaded virus did not occur until April 5 when only the fourth patient to be diagnosed in Belize, Hubert Pipersburgh, succumbed to complications from Covid-19.

Belize’s second death from Covid-19 was reported by the Ministry of Health on April 10 and was said to be the tenth case of Covid-19 confirmed in Belize.

In the early months of this year, international attention was mostly focused on the eastern hemisphere, where mortalities were increasing in Europe, and prompted a high level video-coonference meeting on April 1 between U.S. inter-agency officials and a working group of health representatives from the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), where they discussed “ASEAN-United States cooperation in public health emergencies and countering the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Although the pandemic soon crossed the Atlantic and began to garner major attention in the U.S., Belize was hardly on anyone’s radar in those days, except in regards to the ever growing problem of crime and violence, resulting in occasional Travel Advisories to U.S. citizens visiting our country.

A whole lot has changed in the ensuing months; and by October 5 of this year, the U.S. State Department had issued a Level-3 Travel Advisory that advised their citizens to “Reconsider travel to Belize due to COVID-19.  Exercise increased caution in Belize due to crime.”

And the situation had escalated to such a degree by November 21, that, while they previously had only 3 Levels for their Travel Health Notices (THN), the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) saw it fit to adapt “its 3-level notice system to a new 4-level system for COVID-19 and updated criteria used to determine THN levels.”

And Belize was right there at Level-4, where we remain today.  As of the latest advisory on December 14, “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a Level 4 Travel Health Notice for Belize due to COVID-19.”

   What does Level 4 mean?

The CDC has five categories into which it places countries when advising U.S. citizens in making their travel plans: Level 1, Level 2, Level 3, Level 4, and Unknown.  Their descriptions and related advice are:

Level 4: COVID-19 Very High – Travelers should avoid all travel to these destinations.

Level 3: COVID-19 High – Travelers should avoid all nonessential travel to the following destinations.

Level 2: COVID-19 Moderate – Travelers at increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19 should avoid all nonessential travel to the following destinations.

Level 1: COVID-19 Low – All travelers should wear a mask, stay at least 6 feet from people who are not from your household, wash your hands often or use hand sanitizer, and watch your health for signs of illness.

Level Unknown: COVID-19 Unknown – Travelers avoid all nonessential travel to the following destinations because these countries have not reported COVID-19 data and risk is unknown.

Belize is definitely NOT where we want to be, at Level 4 of the CDC COVID-19 rating.

According to latest reports by graphics.reuters.com, “Belize is reporting 164 new infections on average each day,” with “295 infections per 100k people reported last 7 days.”  “There have been 9,672 infections and 212 coronavirus-related deaths reported in the country since the pandemic began.”  (Reuters says their “Belize COVID-19 data comes from Ministry of Health, Belize – Ministry of Health, Belize, Facebook page.”)

If it is any comfort, our check of the CDC website shows that there are currently 180 countries at Level 4; only 1 at Level 3 (St. Lucia from the Caribbean); 13 countries at Level 2 (including 5 from the Caribbean); and 49 at Level 1 (including 8 from the Caribbean).  Some 9 countries are listed in the Unknown bracket.

Getting back to any level of normalcy in our lives and our economy, requires that as a nation we collectively do what is necessary to bring this pandemic under control within our borders.  The “do’s” and the “don’t s” have been repeated often.  We each can do our part individually; and the authorities also need to make right decisions to garner the support and commitment of a population already struggling with difficult financial circumstances and the threat of violence from competing forces.

We will definitely know we are making real progress when the infection rates and mortality rates have reduced in such a sustained way that it gives confidence to the experts that it is not only a momentary occurrence, but a trend that has been achieved, and can thus be sustained.

The CDC “uses primary and secondary criteria to determine COVID-19 Travel Health Notice (THN) levels.”   And it is based on these that they either raise or lower the THN level.

For the primary criteria in destinations like ours with over 200,00 people, they review the data we provide and consider 1. the “Incidence rate (cumulative new cases per 100,000 people over the past 28 days), and 2. the “New case trajectory (Are new cases over the past 28 days increasing, decreasing, or stable?)”

And for the secondary criteria, the “CDC uses hospitalization rates and cumulative testing positivity rate to validate the primary criteria.  Both primary and secondary criteria are measured over 28 days.  Secondary criteria data are obtained from official sources, such as ministry of health websites.  CDC reviews secondary criteria for all destinations, regardless of population size.”

Without going into all the technical details, the CDC road map for achieving a lowering of our Travel Health Notice Level is described in the following steps:

• “A destination is eligible to move to a lower level when it meets the primary criteria for a lower level for 28 consecutive days (2 incubation periods). The incubation period is the time it can take for a person to develop infection after being exposed to the virus that causes COVID-19.
• “When a destination meets primary criteria for 28 consecutive days, then secondary criteria are reviewed.”

So, Belize; our work is cut out.  This is not a one-day, or one-week battle; we must sustain the pressure and the sacrifice long enough to meet the 28-day threshold for a partial victory over the pandemic, and a big step toward getting our lives back on track and our economy rolling again.

We must share with one another so we can all survive together; otherwise we will all perish.  Where there is a will, there is a way.  Kungo, Belize!