There was a documented uprising of the working class in 1894. And then in 1919, soon after World War I, the people of the old capital, led by soldiers who had returned from Mesopotamia and were aggrieved, broke up the place and held control of the city for two days. In the 1930?s, there was a rebellion led by Antonio Soberanis against the colonial government, and then the original, rebellious, anti-colonial People?s United Party, began in 1950. Nineteen years later, in 1969, the United Black Association for Development arose. UBAD broke up Albert and Regent Streets in May of 1972.

The uprising against the Heads of Agreement in April of 1981, may be viewed as taking place just 12 years after UBAD, and just 9 years after 1972, but, apart from the fact that there are exceptions to any rule, it should be noted that 1981 was the year of political independence, and it was an exceptional time in several different respects.

It was almost exactly twenty years later that there were violent rebellions at the Tower Hill Bridge (surrounding villages) in the Orange Walk District (July 2001) and Benque Viejo in the Cayo District (April 2002). Apart from an uprising of Orange Walk cane farmers in 1978 which was put down by the paramilitary/Belize Defence Force, these two insurrections, as far as I know, were the first major incidents of generalized community mutiny in the districts since the Marcus Canul attack in 1872 in Orange Walk.

There are reasons why the old capital was generally the featured location for rebellion in the territory. There have always been far more people in the old capital, and less space, than anywhere else in Belize. More people, less space ? prescription for more action. It does not have to do just with a people?s level of courage or revolutionary zeal. Take the case of Jamaica. That famous island has ten times the population of Belize crammed into half the square miles of The Jewel. I mean no disrespect to the heroic people of Jamaica, but I must say that the people of Belize have always been in a less tense, less crowded situation. Belizeans only appear to be passive and complacent. Our situation is different, and we respond differently from the Haitians, the Cubans and the Jamaicans. But we have fought when we had to fight.

I would say that there are people within the Government of Belize who are perhaps experiencing false bravado, as well as there are people within the ruling party who may be a trifle na?ve. To begin with, people in power, wish to remain in power. But there is also pressure on the ruling politicians from above, which is to say, those financiers of the oligarchy who invested millions in the PUP?s re-election campaign in 2003, will insist that the government serve out its full five years so that they can get continuing returns on their 2003 election campaign investments. At the same time, as you can see, there is pressure on GOB from beneath, from the masses of the Belizean people as represented by the unions, who seem now prepared to confront the government again. The unions, and the masses of the Belizean people, are dissatisfied, and growing more angry.

We can safely predict that the financiers of the oligarchy will, to repeat, insist that the government ?put down? whatever insurgence with the use of the police and the army. The problem for GOB here is that any serious mutiny will fracture the organization of the police, because they are not only divided, but the policemen/women have their own grievances where salaries and working conditions are concerned. As you know, we are in a time of peace, and yet the government has had to bring in the army to help police the old capital. My thesis is that it is really the army which will have to be used to defend the rule of the present government.

But the employment of the army will create its own dangers for the ruling politicians. The soldiers are, of course, trained to kill. When politicians have to kill their own people because they are under pressure from their campaign financiers, then that is a very undesirable situation for the politicians, because their power is ultimately based, within the parliamentary democracy, on the consent and good will of the people.

So then, we return to the original question ? what will happen here in the next few weeks. A lot will depend on the business people in our society. Business people are citizens who want peace and harmony in their communities so that they can make money and grow rich. It seems that, as a group, the business people in Belize have remained disenchanted with the present government. That is the first read I have gotten following the decision of the unions on March 1 to resume the fight against the higher taxes. The business people, as an organized group, have expressed support for the unions.

At this precise point, I think that this is a government which is in trouble. I say ?this precise point,? because business people are not heroes. They can change their position any day. When I say that the government is in trouble, what I mean is that with the societal factors as they are presently aligned, the mood of the masses of the people is ugly. The people are slow to anger, but they are also slow to be reconciled. As it is today, the people are angry, which means the government is in trouble. The business people are an important element, but it is the people who will decide what they will decide. This is the lesson of history.