Overall, the present administration has managed our economy well. That’s what Belizeans said, overwhelmingly, when they went to the polls on March 12. But fresh off a massive victory at the polls, our political leaders are not resting easy at nights. Like most countries, Belize faces worrying external issues, with recent events likely to cause the price of imported goods to increase considerably again, but that’s not the big headache at the moment. The big trouble is a labor dispute, with public employees agitating for more from the public purse.
Inflation has eaten into the value of the Belize dollar, eroding much of the gains the country has made under the 2020-25 administration. Public employees are demanding a raise of salary, and recovery of earnings lost during the pandemic, and the Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Hon. John Briceño, says we can’t afford it, that what the government pays out in wages at this time is already too much.
Data from the Ministry of Finance show that actual recurrent expenditure for 2022/23 was $1.05 billion, with $450 million going to personal emoluments and $98 million going to pensions and ex gratia payments. The budget submitted for 2025/26, three years later, projects total recurrent expenditure of $1.25 billion (an increase of $0.20 billion), with personal emoluments increasing to $584 million (an increase of $134 million) and pensions plus ex gratia payments increasing to $114 million (an increase of $16 million). But the government’s plan is to rein in expenditure on emoluments and pensions in the near future. The forecast for the financial year 2027/28 is for $591 million to be spent on personal emoluments ($7 million more than this fiscal year), and $115 million to be allotted for pensions plus personal emoluments ($1 million more than this year.) Those ambitious plans seem to be headed out the window.
In its entire existence, Belize has never produced a budget of plenty. The 1984-89 government had some wiggle room thanks to the sale of economic citizenships, the privatization of nearly 50% of the national telephone company, and foreign aid from the Reagan government which was pleased with that (our) government’s economic policies. The 1998-2003 government borrowed enormous amounts of money and sold off/privatized our major assets, but lost much of the financial wind in its sails to a run of extremely bad weather – Hurricane Mitch, which wasn’t a direct hit but caused massive flooding; Hurricane Keith, which flattened San Pedro and Caye Caulker; and Hurricane Iris, which battered the Stann Creek and Toledo Districts. The 2008-2012 government was rolling in Petro Caribe funds and taxes from the oil wells in Spanish Lookout, but citrus and farmed shrimp slumped because of crippling diseases, and the government couldn’t figure out how to manage the foreign debt.
We’ve done a lot of sputtering in the years since 2012. We nationalized BTL, at tremendous cost; saw the oil wells dry to a trickle, and the end of Petro Caribe; and watched our citrus and farmed shrimp industries on life support. Then, like the rest of the world, we faced the Covid pandemic, which hit our backbone tourism industry very hard. We survived because our non-shrimp-and-citrus agricultural production held steady, and so did the BPO industry.
The 2020-25 PUP administration got its share of points as a social justice government. The administration didn’t retrench under pressure, increased subsidies to students in deprived areas, distributed land to the landless and starter homes to those who were in need of a sound roof, bought back Angelfish Cay and Port of Belize, prevented an environmental disaster by blocking Vulcan, expanded NHI, and forced the giant ASR/BSI to come to the table with cane farmers. But it hasn’t done much to get its top members to curtail their appetites. Inflation has made things rough out ya, but for the party’s elite it has been full speed ahead in their latest model SUVs. They are “eating cake”, while employees at the bottom struggle with the price of “baker bread”.
Economics 101 suggests that to pay its employees more, government would have to draw down from funds earmarked for other groups, programs, and projects—take from Peter to pay Paul. It should follow that the administration would be getting support from “Peter”, to hold the rein; but no, the government is alone, on a limb. That’s partly because public employees are close kin—children, brothers, and sisters—of our private sector farmers, fisherfolk, and other small entrepreneurs.
Another reason GoB isn’t getting much sympathy is that senior public servants, who manage the day-to-day business of government, say the money to pay employees can be found if government improves tax collection, and ferrets out ghost workers. Because transparency and accountability continue to elude us, those of us who are outside of the system can only look on. The latest reports are that the government is trying to come up with a little something to keep its employees happy. All of Belize is hoping it’s enough.
Caye Caulker for safe, legal marijuana
Recognizing the injustice of the marijuana law, the 2015-2020 government made the step to decriminalize 10 grams of the drug, for personal use only, in 2017. The 2020-25 government moved to create an industry out of marijuana, and in 2022 a set of laws was drawn up and passed in the House of Representatives and the Senate. However, the law was put on hold indefinitely after the marijuana naysayers, led by a group of church leaders, garnered the requisite number of signatures to force the matter to a referendum. One reason the marijuana law was in jeopardy of being defeated in a referendum, is that many marijuana users and their supporters felt the legislation wasn’t roots-driven.
Users of marijuana, which is considered a mild drug, have been under heavy pressure in Belize ever since the US made it illegal in 1937; and even though the laws in the US have been relaxed significantly (in several US states it is legal to use marijuana recreationally, and medicinal marijuana is legal in most states), the anti-marijuana lobby in Belize relentlessly maintains its stance against it.
The main arguments against marijuana are that it is a gateway drug; and that, because the US federal government hasn’t legalized it, there would be negative consequences for our banking system if we pushed ahead with the grand scheme proposed by the government. While support for the government’s legislation appears underwhelming, there is interest in legalizing it for local use. Many people see marijuana’s potential as a gateway to more dangerous substances as being increased by keeping it illegal. Because it is illegal, its importation, production, and sale are controlled by people outside of the law, some of whom are unscrupulous. There are no studies to go on, but it is believed that many young Belizeans have been introduced to cocaine and crack cocaine through adulterated marijuana.
The President of the US recognizes the danger of keeping marijuana illegal. Bill Chappell, for NPR, said that two months before the last US presidential election, Donald Trump expressed support for the recreational use of marijuana. Chappell said Trump said in a Truth Social post, “I believe it is time to end needless arrests and incarcerations of adults for small amounts of marijuana for personal use. We must also implement smart regulations, while providing access for adults, to [a] safe, tested product.” In Belize, the anti-marijuana lobby, maybe unwittingly, is in effect supporting untested marijuana.
The Village Council in Caye Caulker says nay to untested marijuana. A 7News report said Councilor Ilya Rosado said they are seeking 400 signatures from villagers, and all they seek is for people who “are old enough and responsible enough” to decide if they want to smoke marijuana. Rosado said, “From the council’s perspective, they want to see if we can use this opportunity to create a better economic environment, but we want the people to decide …”Hopefully, Caye Caulker will lead the rest of Belize to a more sane position on marijuana.