Hurricane Dean picked up strength this afternoon as it swirled closer to the Caribbean islands of Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe and St. Lucia in the Lesser Antilles. Even though it is days away from the Western Caribbean, many Belizeans will be keeping watchful eyes on Dean over the weekend, since some hurricane tracking models predict that it could become a major threat to Belize by early next week.
Meteorologist Catherine Cumberbatch spoke with Amandala this evening about any potential threat Dean may pose to Belize. She told us that right now it is too early to tell whether Dean will indeed strike The Jewel, but if it does, it could make landfall as a very strong Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
She, therefore, reminds all Belizeans that, “If you haven’t had your hurricane plan activated as yet, now is the time to get it activated. Be vigilant. Don’t listen to rumors. The best and most reliable information will be coming out of the National Meteorological Service.”
Ordinarily, weather updates are given every six hours, but in the event that Dean poses a clear threat to Belize, updates will be issued more frequently – every three hours.
According to forecaster Cumberbatch, Dean is moving on a similar path as Tropical Storm Chantal did in 2001. That same year, a Tropical Storm Dean also emerged in the Caribbean, but posed no threat to the region.
This year’s Dean is far more dangerous. At the time of this report, it has been moving on a westward track at 23 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds near 100 miles per hour, and it is expected to continue that behavior over the next 24 to 48 hours. It is forecasted to strike the Eastern Caribbean islands by Friday morning, and will continue to strengthen as it journeys into the Western Caribbean.
The models used by the National Meteorological Service in Belize place the hurricane just south of Jamaica on Sunday, with it crossing our part of the Caribbean between Tuesday and Wednesday.
But for now, the residents of Grenada, St. Vincent and Barbados – who are under a tropical storm watch, and those in Dominica and St. Lucia – who may experience hurricane conditions over the next 12 to 24 hours, are watching Dean even more anxiously than us here in Belize. The 3:00 p.m. forecasts places Dean 210 miles ENE of Barbados.
Current projections place Dean at 19.4 N and 84.5 W, or about 150 miles northeast of northern Belize by mid-day Monday.
Since 5-day forecasts are not as accurate as the 3-day forecasts, Belizeans should have a much better picture of where we stand by Saturday, Cumberbatch explained.
Currently, warm sea surface temperatures and good upper level support from an anticyclone very high up in the atmosphere are favoring Dean’s development and are likely to cause it to strengthen.
Dean is a small and compact storm, but it is already packing great intensity. If Dean does come into our region, Belize could start seeing effects of showers before the weekend is over.