The National Meteorological Service says that, regardless of where exactly in the country the storm makes landfall, impacts could be felt countrywide.

by Khaila Gentle

BELIZE CITY, Mon. Oct. 31, 2022

The National Meteorological Service and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) have been monitoring the development of Tropical Storm Lisa since late last week and today have confirmed that the storm is likely to become a Category 1 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Belize. NEMO’s first Tropical Storm Advisory, which was sent out at 10:00 a.m. on Monday, informed the public that Lisa is expected to move south of Jamaica Monday, north of the northern coast of Honduras on Tuesday, and then approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday, making landfall either late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

According to Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon, Lisa is expected to bring up to four inches of rainfall per day between Wednesday and Thursday, which could result in flooding over low-lying and other flood prone areas. Flooding is made even more likely by the fact that the soil is still saturated after the torrential rains caused by Hurricane Julia earlier this month.

Gordon, along with Minister of Sustainable Development, Climate Change, and Disaster Risk Management, Hon. Orlando Habet and National Coordinator of NEMO, Colonel Shelton Defour, held a press conference today to brief the media as Lisa quickly approaches.

He told reporters that there is also a chance of coastal flooding due to storm surges of three to five feet to the north of the storm’s center. Areas around the storm’s center will be affected by winds of 74 – 95 miles per hour. And while there is still some uncertainty regarding where exactly that center will fall, the National MET Service is advising persons countrywide to remain alert.

Predictions are expected to increase in precision as the storm draws nearer, especially twenty-four hours before landfall, but Gordon stressed the importance of not focusing solely on the area of direct landfall, noting that impacts will be felt far beyond that location.

Colonel Shelton Defour says that NEMO has already begun implementing their readiness plan, which includes alerting search and rescue teams and gathering supplies. NEMO’s Human Resource Management Committee, responsible for managing the public officers that will be working in shelters once they are opened, has also begun to prepare.

Defour explained that shelters will be opened as needed in each constituency, and this will begin once hurricane warnings come into effect. San Pedro and Caye Caulker, which are likely to be the first areas to experience the effects of Lisa, have already identified what establishments will be serving as shelters. If an emergency evacuation is needed, residents from the cayes will be able to take refuge in the University of Belize gymnasium in Belmopan.

In addition to rain, wind, and flooding, potential effects of Hurricane Lisa include falling trees and branches, interrupted water and power lines, and falling debris. Weather conditions are expected to worsen in the next few days. According to the Chief Meteorologist, all predictive systems are currently indicating that intensification beyond a Category 1 hurricane is not likely.

“But there is no such thing as 0%,” he added.

The Ministry of Education, Culture, Science & Technology has issued a public notice stating that classes for all schools will be suspended from Tuesday, November 1 until further notice. Minister of Sustainable Development, Climate Change, and Disaster Risk Management, Hon. Orlando Habet has urged the public to follow the advisories published by NEMO and the National Meteorological Service.

NEMO is advising persons to put their family emergency plans into action, check emergency food, water and medical supplies, and check on the elderly and persons with disabilities. Those in high risk areas should make preparations to evacuate.

Lisa is set to become one of the few storms that have made landfall in Belize in November. Records only show three such storms that have done so before—Tropical Storm Laura in 1971, another storm in the 1800s and one in 1931.