Mexico’s first female president is from AMLO’s party; What does this mean for Belize?

BELIZE CITY, Mon. June 3, 2024

Across the border to our north, it was election day on Sunday, June 2nd, as Mexicans headed to the polls to elect their first female president and local leaders, including mayors and state governors. In total, 20,000 positions were being filled, with 70,000 candidates vying for the posts, making it Mexico’s largest election in history. The highest stakes were at the presidential level, for which the incumbent Morena Party of president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) fielded former Mexico City Mayor, Claudia Sheinbaum. She is a climate scientist with a doctorate in energy engineering, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and protégé of AMLO. Her main opponent was businesswoman Xochitl Gálvez, fielded by a coalition of opposition parties. She studied computer engineering with a specialization in robotics, and was named by the World Economic Forum as one of the 100 global leaders of the future.

Preliminary results pointed to Sheinbaum, 61, securing a landslide victory with between 58.3% and 60.7% of the votes, while Gálvez had only secured between 26.6% and 28.8%. A third candidate, Jorge Álvarez Máynez polled 10.8%. The election was deemed as a referendum on AMLO. Sheinbaum campaigned on a platform to continue the legacy of AMLO as her mentor, and her victory is deemed a vote of confidence in his party.

Here in Belize, this latest election in Mexico is perhaps the one that was most closely watched for potential ramifications on our country, particularly because of the energy commitments that our Prime Minister, John Briceno, reported that AMLO had made during a meeting in Cancun in May. On that occasion, the Belize delegation also met with officials from Mexico’s Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE).

Today, Belize’s Ambassador to Mexico, H.E. Oscar Arnold told Amandala that while the final results are not yet in, “from the looks of it, the incumbent party will have a majority in their House as well….” As to the expected relationship going forward, Arnold reported that they have been working with the present administration, and he believes that “the continuity for the Morena Party does hold some benefits for us.” The Ambassador highlighted that Sheinbaum has indicated that she will continue with many, if not all, of the projects instituted under AMLO’s 6-year term when she takes office on October 1 this year.

Arnold was present during the energy discussions in Cancun, and reiterated the commitment by AMLO that Mexico will support Belize where possible. He shared, though, that while CFE is a state-owned company, it is highly independently run. He explained, “They have their own engineers; they have their own CEOs, their own director general who we met while we were in Cancun.”

He noted that whenever John Mencias, the CEO from Belize Electricity Limited (BEL), reaches out to him seeking assistance for him to liaise with officials from CFE, “they’ve always assisted where they can. They’ve always assisted with more supply than they originally had anticipated. And so, in some instances, where there was a load shedding schedule that would come out by BEL, I believe that in some instances, we didn’t see those load sheddings, or those blackouts as such, because the Mexicans committed maybe an hour before the schedule that they could do more.” Among the officials with whom Arnold says they have a good relationship are the regional directors of CFE in Yucatan, from where Belize receives its supply.

Arnold emphasized, though, that even if during the transition period from AMLO to Sheinbaum, there is a change of officials on the ground at CFE, their job at the Embassy of Belize is to keep the lines of communication open. That includes seeking meetings with incoming officials as early as possible.

Asked if it is a difficult task to return to CFE officials so often to ask for an increase in supply when Belize is on the brink of yet another load shedding, Arnold pointed out that there is a power purchase agreement between BEL and CFE, so Belize is paying for all the energy it gets from them. He says, therefore, that it is not difficult to go and make the request. What’s challenging, according to Arnold, is the analysis and balancing act that must be done by BEL to determine how much additional energy is needed, especially when there are unforeseen circumstances that impact local suppliers in Belize.

CFE normally provides up to 55 megawatts of electricity to Belize’s national grid. It was agreed between AMLO and Briceno that another 25 megawatts could be provided. However, Arnold said that that increase is contingent on BEL upgrading the transmission line from CFE to Belize. He said, “As far as I understood it, at that meeting, it was a minimal investment that was needed [to upgrade the transmission line].” He also clarified, therefore, that the provision of the additional 25 megawatts is not contingent on the completion of the two energy plants that Mexico is building. According to Arnold, while there are areas of Mexico also experiencing blackouts, in Yucatan, there is a surplus of energy.