Cyclone activity picked up in the Atlantic this week with two named storms forming one day apart. Tropical Storm Dean formed on Tuesday morning in the eastern part of the Atlantic while Tropical Storm Erin formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning.
Meteorologist at the National Meteorological Service, Dennis Gonguez, said that things are right on track for a busy hurricane season this year.
Gonguez said, “A comparison of last year’s hurricane season revealed that around this time three tropical storms had formed (Alberto, Beryl and Chris). Debby later formed around the 21st August. After Debby, five systems attained hurricane status (Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene and Isaac).”
The forecast is for an above average Atlantic hurricane season with 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes, with four of them projected to become major hurricanes. We have reached storm number five already for this season.
“Although the prediction is for an above average season, even if you only get one storm for the year, that wrecks the entire year,” Gonguez said.
There are two major differences between this year and 2006, he added. Firstly, ocean temperatures got warmer than normal well in advance of the hurricane season, which opened in June, and apart from that, the force that inhibited cyclone activity last year – the strong El Niño – has decreased.
Thirteen named storms were predicted for 2006, but only nine formed.
“It would not be safe to assume this year will be as slow as last year was,” Gonguez cautioned.
He told us that the peak of Atlantic-Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico season is yet to come.
“The peak of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico hurricane season is yet to come and this occurs near the 10 to 13th September. The western Caribbean season ramps up in October when the preferred area of development shifts to over this side,” Gonguez elaborated.
The hurricane season does not end until November 30.
As for Tropical Storm Dean (which formed on Tuesday and is forecast to become a hurricane by the end of the week), it is well away from the Eastern Caribbean islands and should enter the Eastern Caribbean on Saturday, Gonguez forecasted.
“A lot can happen between now and Saturday,” Gonguez commented, advising the public to “remain vigilant and alert, and ready to enact your hurricane emergency plan if the need arises.”
Preliminary warnings from the National Met Office begin when a storm is 72 hours or three days away.
The first storm for this season – Andrea – formed in early May even though the official hurricane season begins on June 1. Barry formed from a tropical depression that emerged at the very start of the season and reached a peak of 60 miles per hour.
The US National Hurricane Center in Miami notes that, “2007 marks the 23rd season since Atlantic records began in 1851 that two or more named storms have formed prior to the end of June.”
The remaining names on the storm list are: Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Noel, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy.
Belize was spared from a direct hit by the devastating Hurricane Mitch in 1998, but in 2001, Iris pummeled southern Belize.
The most deadly hurricane recorded in our history was the 1931 hurricane (September 6 to 10), which claimed between 1,500 to 2,500 lives. In Janet (1955), roughly 2,000 people died. Next was Hattie – October 26-31 1961, which claimed almost 300 lives and wreaked havoc in Belize City and Dangriga. Another significant hurricane was recorded on September 2, 1787, which, according to the NHC, claimed 100 lives.
Gonguez told us that national hurricane records date back only as far as 1889.
There were 12 tropical cyclones that crossed Belize from 1889 to 1931 – a period spanning 42 years. Three storms, including a deadly hurricane, happened in 1931. September saw peak activity during that period, with four storms occurring in that month.
The 12 recorded storms occurred on September 17, 1889; October 12, 1892; September 16, 1898; November 3, 1898; June 20, 1902; September 2, 1916; August 26, 1918; June 17, 1921; June 18, 1924; July 12, 1931; August 16, 1931, and September 10, 1931.