The United States has gone berserk. As the ancient proverb says, those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.
From last September 2019, the Federal Reserve has put over US$500 billion in the banks for the Repo market.
On March 15, 2020, the Federal Reserve decided to put another $US700 billion in the economy and the Fed recently announced $300 billion to keep credit following.
Additionally, a 2 trillion bailout stimulus has been passed into law. The Federal Reserve has announced unlimited asset purchase, or unlimited Quantitative Easing (money creation).
Currently, the Federal Reserve balance sheet is at US$ 5.6 trillion. Investors and foreign central banks are dumping US treasuries at an unprecedented rate. The one-month Treasury bill yield closed at minus-0.112%, and the three-month bill ended at minus-0.072%.
We will have a lot of cash chasing few products. Prices will increase based on the law of supply and demand. The Economic Security Act (the CARES Act) authorizes an additional US$4.5 trillion in additional debt. It is guaranteed that there will be additional creation of money by issuing debts to the US taxpayers before the year finishes. This will accelerate the decline of its world reserve currency status.
China, Russia, Turkey and Eastern European countries have been buying tons of gold. The US dollar is not backed by anything but confidence in the US government, although the petro-dollar has forced the world to use the US dollar to buy oil.
Oil is the most traded commodity in the world. I think sophisticated countries will not have confidence in the US dollar. The US dollar of foreign reserve has been steadily decreasing from a high of 71% in 2001 to a low of 62% in 2018, according to the IMF.
Quantitative easing and low interest rates were to be temporary, to get us through the 2008 Great Recession, but it has become permanent.
The Institute of International Finance data shows global debt to GDP hit a record high of 322% in 2019. The world central banks have created an additional US$7 trillion in debt for a COVID-19 pandemic stimulus package.
My advice is that the Central Bank of Belize must buy gold to protect the country from inflation. This is just the beginning of an economic meltdown.
Brian E Plummer