We are living in an unprecedented time. An invisible enemy has brought the world to its proverbial knees. Unemployment is at a level never before seen in our lifetimes. Government coffers are rapidly drying up. Countless businesses have shut down, and many may not be able to re-open. Entire economies have collapsed or are on the verge of collapsing. All this brings with it something as dangerous or more dangerous than the virus itself. Economic collapse results in untold human suffering. The poor and indigent are the first to suffer the cruel impacts of Corona. They already were barely eking out a living and now, with Corona, many will become even more desperate. To make matters worse, many people who were living from pay cheque to pay cheque will join the ranks of the desperate.
Belize’s pre-COVID-19 unemployment rate was 10.4% in September 2019. The September 2019 Labour Force Survey by the Statistical Institute of Belize reported 19,849 unemployed persons. As of April 16, 2020, the Government Press Office reported that there were 65,762 applications for COVID-19 financial aid, and of those 15,197 applications have been excluded. This means that close to 50,000 applicants may qualify for financial aid. If these applications are a sign of the true number of unemployed persons, then this is more than a 150% increase over the September 2019 unemployment figures. Pre-COVID-19, our poverty level was above 42%. With a dwindling middle class, that figure will surely increase dramatically to a scenario that is reminiscent of the pre-civil war eras of most of our Central American neighbors, where a handful of filthy rich ruled over the poor masses. The situation is indeed very dire.
The prognosis for our economic outlook is even gloomier if we do not learn from our past mistakes. Understandably, we are focused on the current crisis and helping the many thousands of people who are in need. Kudos to the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition for coming together to address the COVID-19 crisis in a bi-partisan manner. Belize stands out as one of the very few countries where this is the case. Knowing that there are politicians on both sides of the fence who literally hate each other’s guts, and that both leaders must be facing tremendous pressure from within their political parties, the bi-partisan approach being attempted by Dean Barrow and John Briceno is very laudable indeed. Who would have thought just one month ago that this would have been possible? But we now see it happening. Even though the bi-partisan effort is far from perfect, just the fact that it is being given a chance amidst all the intra-party political pressures should give a sense of hope.
The cynics will say that the Prime Minister, shrewd tactician that he is, formed the COVID-19 National Oversight Committee so as to be able to say that any criticism about the crisis response and any fallout should be leveled at the Committee and not only at him. Some in the Opposition are very displeased that their leader agreed to sit at the table with the Prime Minister. They would have preferred him to turn down the invitation and leave the Prime Minister to his own designs. The fact is that the Prime Minister is the one with the power and authority, and the National Oversight Committee has not changed that. Be that as it may, the other fact is that both leaders agreed to come together on this COVID-19 matter. By so doing, they have set a precedent that the major political parties, or at least their leaders, can come together in times of crisis. We should make the most of that opportunity by hitting the reset button.
One of the first things that should be done is to appoint a high-level Economic Recovery Planning (ERP) Task Force co-led by the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition, and include their economic advisers, as well as representatives from the social partners and civil society. This team would be charged with putting together an economic recovery strategy for a post-Corona era. The crisis does not end when Covid-19 infections stabilize or when a vaccine is invented and made widely available. The current lockdowns and social distancing measures have wreaked such massive economic havoc that the health crisis has rapidly evolved into an economic crisis with no immediate end in sight.
We need to bring our best minds together to respond to this economic crisis — to find a way forward to gradually reverse the economic decline and steadily work toward prosperity. The UDP does not have a monopoly on intelligence. Neither does the PUP. Neither do the men. Neither do the women. Neither do the young or old. We have many bright minds in both political parties, as well as among civil society. We need to harness that intelligence in a multi-partisan and collaborative way.
The next step, overseen by the ERP Task Force, would be to design a new National Budget that will focus on recovering the economy and creating new opportunities for prosperity. The current National Budget is not worth the paper it is written on, because it was based on realities and projections that are now wholly irrelevant due to COVID-19. We have an opportunity to design a Budget for the Ages — one that has the best interests of all Belizeans at heart. This Budget for National Recovery would then need to have bi-partisan support when introduced in the National Assembly. The Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition would cement a positive legacy by convincing their parties to support such a bold initiative. It can be done, once the will is there. This would be a true reset.
Ideally, a coalition government should be formed to focus on implementing the initial stage of recovering the economy from now to Election Day. A coalition government would ensure that the wishes and aspirations of ALL Belizeans are represented. This might be a pipe dream. It would certainly be a much harder sell than putting in place an ERP Task Force and designing a bi-partisan National Recovery Budget, which in themselves are hard sells. However, knowing that this crisis is touching us all — across political boundaries, across communities, across families — should be incentive enough to prompt us to think outside our comfortable boundaries that we have become so used to. Corona has taught us that everything can be changed in a very short time. So why not change the way we are governed? Why not take the next step and build on what the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition have started with the COVID-19 National Oversight Committee?
Partisanship can resume in the weeks leading to Election Day, but a partisanship with a different level of political maturity. The UDP and PUP should agree to conduct a low-level electoral campaign, which acknowledges that the millions of dollars that are traditionally thrown at gaining the support of the electorate should rather be spent on economic recovery. Politicians would commit a grave sin — one for which we should never forgive them — if they conduct the upcoming electoral campaign as they have always done. The parties should agree that there will be no billboards, no placards, no T-shirts, and no vote-buying in the months, weeks and days leading up to Election Day. The only flags that should be used should be the Flag of Belize. Political advertisements should focus on the platforms of the parties, and should be devoid of personal attacks and character assassination. All forms of campaigning should be halted at least 2 weeks before Election Day. Voters should therefore feel free and unencumbered to cast their ballots on Election Day.
Some Belizeans will scoff or snicker at my ideas. Some will say that I am being idealistic rather than pragmatic. Some will say that my head is in the clouds — that I’m being delusional because of being stuck at home for weeks. To them I say: We are living in unprecedented times that require unprecedented efforts to guide us to a brighter future. Business as usual will not cut it.
My good friend, Dr. Kent Novelo, summed it up well:
“The entire world, for sure, will have to hit the reset button in the post COVID-19 era. How each society (and individual) does that will be determined by many factors including political maturity, degree of nationalism/patriotism (as opposed to egotistical, selfish-driven actions), and frankly, one’s sense of humanism. We are after all, our brothers and sisters’ keepers.”
We need a bold reset in order to come out of this crisis with renewed energy and aspirations. We need to put the country first and political parties a very distant second. We will survive. How well we survive will be up to our collective efforts.