40% of US oil rigs are offline. Vietnam, Chad, Brazil and members of OPEC are cutting their output of oil. About 50 million barrels of oil are going to storage in a week. Land-based storage is expected to finish by the end of May. This means there will be an oversupply of oil for at least a year, because if the world’s economy opens up, it will be slow and uncertain.
Oil was the most traded commodity (about 4% of world GDP). The US is the worst hit both by the oil collapse and COVID-19.
In 2018, the central banks of the world’s reserve in gold reached a 50-year high. In 2019, central banks increased their gold purchase by 17 tons. Russia, China, Poland, India, Hungary, Turkey and Kazakhstan are some countries that are buying gold.
In 2017, Germany completed its repatriation of $31 billion worth of gold bars from New York and Paris.
In February 2020, the world’s central banks bought 36 tons of gold, which is a 33% increase from January 2020 purchases. They know a global-changing event is imminent, and gold is the best security.
I am sure the world will go back to a gold-backed currency, which we left in 1971 when the US abandoned the gold standard. I am not sure when, but I think it will be within a decade.
On April 25, 2020, digital currency for domestic use was launched, and it is expected to be ready for international money transfer by July 2021. This system is cheaper and independent of the US-dominated SWIFT (Society for the Worldwide Interbank Telecommunications) money transfer system.
The world’s economic system is changing. We either strategically adjust and capitalize, or become victims of the more powerful nations.
Brian Ellis Plummer