Photo: Cover of the Election and Boundaries’ July 2023 Re-Division report
BELIZE CITY, Thurs. July 20, 2023
Cabinet Minister Hon. Julius Espat recently told the media that all he needed to hear regarding the July 2023 Re-Division report of the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) now submitted to the National Assembly is whether the document can pass legal scrutiny. Espat says he posed that question to one of the attorney ministers during last week Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting where the report was discussed. The answer, according to Espat was, “It won’t last 10 minutes.” Espat added that his next question was whether the report followed the international standard of deviation of +/-15% regarding the size of the registered voter population being as equal as possible across electoral divisions. To the surprise – and perhaps alarm – of many (including the claimants who took the Government to court to force compliance with the Constitution on required redistricting) the report actually proposes a deviation of +/-25% for 29 divisions and up to 35% for two.
We now examine in detail the contents of the report prepared by the Commission comprising two PUP members (Orlando Espat and Martin Conrad Lewis), two UDP members (Phillipa Griffith Bailey and Alberto August) and a chairman, Senior Counsel Oscar Sabido. The report is 39 pages long apart from appendices. It is divided into five chapters (Introduction and Background, Rationale, Methodology, Situation Analysis and Recommendations) and notes that a redistricting exercise takes account of movement and changes in the electoral population as well as regard for “transport and other facilities of the division, and to its physical features.” It highlights that malapportionment violates a central tenet of democracy that all voters should be able to cast a vote of equal weight adhering to the one person, one vote principle.
In its introductory chapter, the Commission outlines that at independence, Belize had 18 electoral divisions. The first re-division exercise in 1984 saw 10 additional electoral divisions added, so that the total number of electoral divisions was increased to 28. Four of the 10 new divisions went to the Belize District and two each to Cayo, Corozal and Orange Walk. The electoral divisions in Stann Creek and Toledo were also renamed at that time. In 1993, one division was added to the Belize District, taking the total number of electoral divisions to 29. The Commission additionally highlights that in 1997, 1998 and 2002, boundary adjustments were made to several electoral divisions.
The last re-division exercise was conducted in 2003/2004 and saw the number of divisions increase by two. Cayo District received both seats. The changes from that exercise came into effect April 1, 2005. The divisions were divided as follows: Belize District: 13; Toledo District: 2; Corozal District: 4; Orange Walk: 4; Cayo District: 6; and Stann Creek District: 2.
Looking at population growth since the last redistricting exercise, the EBC outlines that between 2005 and mid-year 2022, Belize’s population grew by 51.3%, from 291,800 to 441,471 persons. The Belize District recorded the largest population growth while the Toledo District recorded the smallest.
Notably, rural areas experienced a higher population growth rate which was almost double that of urban areas. Respectively, those numbers are 68.52% and 34.23%. The most notable increase in population over the period was in San Pedro at 184.59%. In contrast, the population in Belize City, the largest urban area in the country, increased by 10.2% in the same period. On the other hand, the population of Orange Walk Town decreased by 10.75%.
Turning now to the figures for registered electors from May 2005 to March 2023, there was an increase of 45.68%. In May 2005 there were 129,949 voters, while in March 2023, there were 189,306 registered voters. As to divisions recording notable increases in number of registered voters, Belize Rural Central increased by 92.13%, Belize Rural South by 143.02%, the city of Belmopan by 108.54%, and Cayo North by 92.71%. Electoral divisions that recorded notable decreases in number of registered voters included Mesopotamia, 29.30%, Fort George, 25.58%, and Queen’s Square, 24.35%.
Based on the total number of registered electors as at March 2023, the Commission’s report indicates that 5 districts are currently under-represented. These are Corozal (by 0.77%), Orange Walk (by 2.11%), Cayo (by 5.3%), Stann Creek (by 1.99%) and Toledo (by 1.34%). Only the Belize District is over-represented (by 11.52%).
In the Belize District, of the total 13 electoral divisions, 9 saw an increase in voter population and 4 saw a decrease since the last re-division exercise. Pickstock went up by 41.29%; Lake Independence by 34.1%; Freetown by 32.95%; Port Loyola by 27.44%; Caribbean Shores by 17.13%; Belize Rural North by 16.91%; and Collet by 13.94%. Mesopotamia, Fort George, Queen’s Square and Albert all saw decreases.
The Commission calculated the national mean of registered voters per division to be 6,107. Only 5 of the 31 divisions currently comply with the national mean.
The calculations for the percentage deviation by division shows the highest deviation from the national mean being in the Stann Creek West Division at 69.3% (there are 4,231 more voters over the calculated mean). In second place is the Fort George division at -63.3% (there are 3,864 fewer voters than the calculated mean). Mesopotamia is a close third with -63.3% and 3863 fewer voters below the calculated mean. The division with the least deviation is Orange Walk Central at 0.2%, given that it has just 9 voters over the calculated mean.
The EBC Re-Division Report states at Section 50 that “The number of registered electors in 11 of the 13 electoral divisions in Belize District are between 21% and 63% below the national mean. A potential solution to these imbalances would require a reduction in the number of electoral divisions.” It therefore states at Section 60 that, based on the proportional redistribution of registered electors, the total number of electoral divisions should be 32. However, to avoid a potential stalemate in elections, the EBC is recommending that the number of electoral divisions remain at 31.
With the above outlined, we come now to the EBC’s proposals that have generated much controversy and are being widely rejected. The recommendation is to eliminate two divisions in the Belize District, taking the number from 13 to 11. The divisions proposed for elimination are Queen’s Square and Port Loyola. Cayo and Stann Creek would be increased by one division each. There would be a new electoral division in Belmopan.
In the Belize District, the recommendation is to increase the number of voters in Fort George by adding Caye Caulker voters from Belize Rural South and a portion of polling area 16 from Albert. It is recommended that Caribbean Shores get a portion of voters from polling area 3B in Freetown, while Freetown would then receive a portion of voters from Belize Rural Central, specifically, a portion of Mitchell Estate from Ladyville and the entirety of Vista del Mar. Pickstock would then get a portion of Fort George, Lake I and Albert voters. The Albert division would receive voters from Queen’s Square and Port Loyola.
Some Queen’s Square and Collet voters would also be pushed into Mesopotamia, and Collet would receive voters from Port Loyola and from polling area 33 in Belize Rural Central. Belize Rural Central would lose Gales Point Manatee which would be reassigned to Stann Creek North. Belize Rural South would be renamed to Ambergris Caye and would comprise just the island of Ambergris Caye.
In the Case of the Cayo District, Belmopan would then become Belmopan East and Belmopan West. The latter would receive a portion of voters (polling area 89) from Cayo South. Cayo South would then receive polling area 78 voters from Cayo Central. Cayo Northeast would receive voters from Cayo North and Cayo Central.
In the Stann Creek District, there would be Stann Creek North and Stann Creek South which would have voters from what is now Stann Creek West. Dangriga would remain unchanged.
The Corozal District would see minor changes in Corozal North in one polling area (43) that would be split to exclude Baeza Layout and San Andres Village. These would go to polling areas 39 and 40 which fall in Corozal Bay.
The two divisions in the Toledo District would remain unchanged.
The Commission notes that Belize’s growth rate for the past 10 years is 25%, with the exception of Ambergris Caye which saw an increase of 31%. The Commission therefore proposes a (+/-) 25% deviation (4,580 registered voters at lower limit and 6,735 at upper limit) from the national mean to be applied to all electoral divisions except for Ambergris Caye where a 35% deviation threshold (3,970 at lower limit and 8,244 at upper limit) would be applied. Based on the graph in the report showing the deviation, Cayo North is being proposed to have a deviation of 27.35%.
The Commission also made recommendations for changes to the Constitution. It proposes that Section 90 be amended to include a deviation from the national mean.
The report will be discussed at the next meeting of the House of Representatives; however, according to the Deputy Prime Minister, Hon. Cordel Hyde, “We also want to be in compliance with the Constitution … and what we saw on Tuesday did not pass that smell test ….” He believes that the “Commission will end up having to have a do-over.” For his part, Minister Espat went even further. He said “We can’t fool ourselves. We can’t put a document that will not pass scrutiny. And if we’re doing that, then it’s irresponsible.” Notably, Espat, during an appearance on the PUP’s The Whip show earlier this week on Vibes Radio, also commented about the leak of the Re-Division report. As regards the media reporting on the leaked re-division report, Espat stated, “If you are seeking the truth, then let it get out there and let’s deal with it. That’s the fact. If it was leaked out, then it’s already out there. Social media will disseminate it no matter what. It’s the era in which we live.”