Thanks to much hard work and a number of decisions that had successful outcomes, the 2020-2025 PUP government brought a measure of prosperity to our country after we were in economic collapse because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Due to their efforts, coupled with the implosion of the main opposition party (the UDP), we have a government that was rewarded with the highest vote of confidence ever. Since independence, parties which win with large margins have typically lost ground in the subsequent election, until the 2025 PUP, which won over 66% of the popular vote, after winning 58.8% in 2020.
It would appear that the PUP will have an easy time ensuring they are returned to office in 2030. Just the thought of that possibility, likelihood, could make anyone who isn’t a die-hard PUP feel exhausted. Ten years of a single political party being in power is a long time, and when added to the four and a half years that the PUP was in office between 2020 and 2025, it looks like an eternity. The last thing Belize needs at this time are opposition leaders who are bowed by the situation, or pessimists who would curtail their energies because they see no chance in the next election. The Belizean people don’t need an opposition party that is waiting for the people to get tired of the PUP, in order to then ride a negative vote to the National Assembly.
Every democracy needs a formidable opposition, and Belize is desperate for the UDP to rebound in a big way. The task calls for leaders in the UDP who have fiber, and are upbeat about the future. Anything based in truth that energizes the UDP at this time when they are flatter than ground corn in a tortilla press, is a good thing. The UDP can find immediate hope in the fact that the popular vote in 2025 isn’t a true measure of the popularity of the parties, because they didn’t put their best into that election. Also, they must remember that their own party which won big in 2008, lost 6 percentage points in 2012 and almost lost that election. The UDP won a 25-6 majority and 56.3% of the popular vote in 2008, and eked out a 17-14 victory with 50.4% of the popular vote in 2012.
The people need the UDP to recruit talent from every corner. Within a year the UDP needs to have the foundation of a Red Plan Belize that is better than Blue Plan Belize 1.0, 2.0, or whatever other “.0” the ruling party can produce. The UDP must be prepared to lead.
The PUP appears invincible. Throughout February and up to March 12, the date of the election, only someone who was marooned on an island, on a hermit move in the forest, or hiding out in a cave, didn’t hear of all the wonders our saviors in blue shirts had delivered in their 2020-2025 term. With over 66% of the popular vote filling their sails, it would seem that Belizeans from end to end of the country are living pretty, are fully satisfied. It isn’t so. The truth is that we were buffeted by headwinds in 2020-2025, and as the Prime Minister indicated in his victory speech on election night, there are some difficult seas ahead.
Inflation was the bane of the 2020-2025 government. It was not of their making; it was mainly fallout from the pandemic and an unstable world; but governments embrace good luck as if it was their invention, so bad luck they can’t disown. The PUP increased the minimum wage by 51%, but the price of the grocery basket went up 30%. It’s hard to pin down how many starter homes the PUP government built directly, but with the money the country spent, they could have built many more if inflation hadn’t deflated our dollar.
It would be great if there were no more pandemics, peace across the globe, if the new government in the US recognized that their country was at its greatest when Jimmy Carter was president, and Guatemala has no issues if/when, as we expect, the ICJ tells them what they already know, that to their east lies a good neighbor whose territory is as it was recognized in 1859, so that all our attention could be directed to the bread and butter issues that we face daily. Data from the Statistical Institute of Belize show unemployment at the lowest ever recorded; but it’s a struggle for most Belizeans to pay their bills because of the high cost of living. The PUP has promised to increase the minimum wage a further 20 percent. The price of imported goods rarely goes down, but if inflation stabilizes to a more normal 1.5 to 2 percent per year, workers at the bottom of the pay scale will find some ease from the hand-to-mouth existence.
Our country is dependent on tourism. Most of our tourists come from Europe, the US, and Canada; and with Europe directing more funds to defense because of Russia’s disrespect for Ukraine’s territory, Canada nervous because of US threats of higher tariffs and “making” them its 51st state, and massive layoffs looming in the US because their government is on a mission to cut all fat from their public sector, things might slow down in that industry. We are extremely competitive in the BPO industry, and the indicators say we should be confident in its future. But so were we in shrimp farming, until a virus came along; so were we in the sewing industry, until workers here became restive and other countries said they could deliver the garments at less cost.
Climate change is upon us, and it is making it a lot more costly for our farmers to carry out their business. If the infestation of the New World Screw Worm isn’t checked, it could set the livestock industry back to what it was prior to 2020. There are conflicting reports about the health of our fish stock, and it seems like everyone who has money in the bank wants to dredge in our seabed and cut down our mangroves. In a couple months’ time, we will be back in the hurricane season, and we haven’t yet recovered fully from Lisa, which hit in 2022.
Belizeans are disappointed that families with children suffering from chronic illnesses are not getting sufficient support from the state. They are anxious to see if NHI will deliver all that it promised. Belizeans want to know when we will be a tranquil haven again. Belizeans know we are eating poorly. Second-term governments are notorious for corruption; we need a strong opposition to watch our treasury and other resources.
We need a vibrant opposition that embraces educating our people, and rejects sophistry. The recommendations of the People’s Constitution Commission are expected to be tabled soon, and we will need an opposition that has the capacity and energy to help us decide on the way forward. There’s a lot to discuss about the Equal Opportunities Bill.
The UDP shouldn’t depend on the PUP stumbling, either because of factors in the world, loss of capacity, or choking on their success. Belize doesn’t need that type of opposition. We need an opposition that can go toe to toe with the politicians in power at any time, a party with promises to do better, and plans to show how they will do it.
Because they are way behind, the UDP has a high hurdle to get over. At the least, the party has to make the PUP know that they will be no walkover in the next election. Quién sabe what happens when the polls close in 2030 if the UDP is sincere and energetic about the people’s business.