by Charles Gladden
BELIZE CITY, Thurs. Nov. 14, 2024
A tropical depression off the coast of Honduras turned into Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday, November 14, and is predicted to bring lots of rain when it makes landfall on the coast of Belize a few days from now.
As of 9:00 a.m. on Thursday, TS Sara was moving west at 14 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour, and it was located 391 miles east by south of Belize City, which would theoretically allow for potential landfall within 27 hours.
“However, the forecast is for the system to slow down, so that 14 miles per hour speed is not expected to be maintained. The forecast is for it to stall north of Honduras for at least 24 to 36 hours, and begin moving to the northwest into our area,” said Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist at the National Meteorological Service of Belize.
The system has the potential to make landfall in Belize, and even possibly to strengthen into a hurricane before landfall. Nonetheless, Gordon said that the system is likely to weaken as it moves closer to the coast of Honduras within 24 hours.
He cautioned, however, that the forecast may not be completely accurate.
“No forecast can be exact, and hence, again, that’s why, of course, you have this uncertainty cone indicating that the depression is moving towards us, but there is a possibility it can go in either direction. However, the most likely scenario from this probability distribution is that it will move to the center, where the highest probability is. As it moves farther away from the center, the probability decreases. So, there is a good chance that Belize will be impacted by a tropical storm sometime on Sunday, late Sunday, and possibly Monday morning. Timing is also variable, because no one can predict exactly when … these models, again, are not perfect,” Gordon said.
Gordon acknowledged that the storm could strengthen into a hurricane if it moves away from land, but that such a scenario is unlikely.
“If it remains offshore, then it should be a bit stronger. So, there is still some variance within that intensity forecast. The forecast is for it to come ashore as a 50-mile helper or storm. And that’s down from yesterday when they had it at 70. So, it’s trending downward because that means that more of the models show it is beginning overland in Honduras,” he highlighted.
“The extreme worst-case scenario, outside the forecast, is perhaps a category one hurricane. We are not seeing that, but that’s the extreme worst. Currently, it’s at 50 miles per hour. So that’s what we’re expecting. In the best case, we can [see it go] further over Honduras, and come across as a [tropical] depression and be a rainfall producer,” Gordon said.
It is predicted that TS Sara will bring 10 inches of rainfall or more.